中国债务问题需更全面解决方案

China’s leaders need to look beyond the current solutions being floated to tackle the country’s mounting corporate debt problems and come up with a bigger plan to do so, the International Monetary Fund’s top China expert has warned.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)负责中国问题的专家警告称，为了应对中国日益严峻的公司债务问题，中国领导人需要超越目前提出的解决方案，并拿出一个更全面的方案。

The IMF has been expressing growing concern about China’s debt issues and pushing for an urgent response by Beijing to what the fund sees as a serious problem for the Chinese economy. It warned in a report earlier this month that $1.3tn in corporate debt — or almost one in six of the business loans on Chinese banks’ books — was owed by companies who brought in less in revenues than they owed in interest payments alone.

IMF近来对中国债务问题表示了越来越大的关注，并敦促北京方面采取紧急应对措施，以解决IMF眼中中国经济面临的这个严峻问题。该组织在本月早些时候发布的一份报告中警告称，中国那些没有足够盈利来支付利息的企业，持有的债务已高达中国上市公司债务的14%，中国可能处于风险之中的银行对企业贷款接近1.3万亿美元。

In a paper published on Tuesday, James Daniel, the fund’s China mission chief, and two co-authors, went further and warned that Beijing needed a comprehensive strategy to tackle the problem.

IMF中国磋商代表团团长詹姆斯•丹尼尔(James Daniel)与两位合著者在周二发布的文章进一步警告称，中国政府需要一个更全面的战略来解决该问题。

They warned that the two main responses Beijing was planning to the problem — debt-for-equity swaps and the securitisation of non-performing loans — could in fact make the problem worse if underlying issues were not dealt with.

他们表示，如果不解决根本性的问题，中国政府针对债务问题拟采取的两大措施——债转股及不良贷款证券化——事实上会使问题恶化。

“Converting NPLs into equity or securitising them are techniques that can play a role in addressing these problems and have been used successfully by some other countries,” Mr Daniel and his co-authors wrote. “But they are not comprehensive solutions by themselves — indeed, they could worsen the problem, for example, by allowing zombie firms [non-viable firms that are still operating] to keep going.”

丹尼尔及合著者写道：“尽管这些技术性方案——将不良贷款置换为股权或将不良贷款证券化——在应对上述问题中能发挥作用，且也曾在其他国家成功实施，但其本身并非全面的解决方案……事实上它们可能会使问题恶化，比如允许‘僵尸’企业（不可持续经营但仍在运行的企业）继续存续和经营。”

The plan for debt-for-equity swaps could end up offering a temporary lifeline to unviable state-owned companies, they warned. It could also leave them managed by state-owned banks or other officials with little experience in doing so.

他们警告称，债转股计划可能最终会变成向不可持续经营的国企提供的一条临时的救生索，还可能会导致这些国企最后由不具备经营或企业重组专业知识的国有银行或其他官员来管理。

Pooling non-performing loans and selling them as securities also presented other potential problems. While it could help clear up debt problems quickly it could also end up helping to prop up struggling state-owned enterprises. Some 60 per cent of non-performing loans in China are owed by SOEs “and are concentrated in a few distressed industries”, they wrote.

把不良贷款打包成证券出售，也带来了其他潜在问题。尽管这么做可能有助于迅速清理债务问题，但最终可能也有助于支撑那些处于挣扎中的国企。他们写道，在中国，约60%的不良贷款是由国企欠下的，“并且集中在少数几个困难行业”。

The IMF also raised concerns about the depth of China’s domestic market for distressed debt and the possibility that risky securities based on non-performing loans could be sold to retail investors.

IMF还对中国国内问题债务市场的深度、以及将基于不良贷款的高风险证券出售给散户投资者的可行性表示了担忧。

What China needed, they argued, was a “comprehensive corporate restructuring” strategy that led to the shutting down of distressed companies, even if they were state-owned and in politically-sensitive sectors.

他们辩称，中国需要一项“全面的公司重组”战略，即要关闭不可持续经营的企业，即便它们是国有的、并处于具有政治敏感性的行业。

“Without addressing the fundamental problem of weak firms, any financial restructuring will only result in greater losses in the future.”

“不解决脆弱企业的根本问题，任何财务重组都只会导致未来出现更大的损失。”

A bigger plan would also have to require banks to proactively deal with their non-performing loans, something state-owned Chinese banks have not always been eager to do in the past.

一项更全面的计划还必须要求银行主动应对它们的不良贷款。中国国有银行以往并不总是热衷于应对这个问题。

The intervention from the IMF comes ahead of the fund’s annual Article 4 review of the Chinese economy with Mr Daniel due to lead a mission to Beijing in June. Addressing the country’s debt problems is likely to be one big focus of those discussions.

6月份，丹尼尔将率领一个代表团访问北京，完成IMF的中国经济“第四条款”年度磋商。化解中国的债务问题很可能会成为此次磋商的一大主题。