市场聚焦:分析师越来越看好中国

Our round-up of the week’s best comment and analysis from the Financial Times focuses on positive signals for the word’s second-largest economy and the implications for investors of the Federal Reserve rate rise.

我们盘点了英国《金融时报》上周的最佳评论和分析，重点关注全球第二大经济体中国的积极信号以及美联储(Fed)加息给投资者带来的影响。

The selection is taken from our Markets Insight and Smart Money columns, written by industry contributors and FT commentators.

我们选择的文章来自我们的Markets Insight和Smart Money专栏，它们由行业撰稿人和英国《金融时报》评论员撰写。

Investors may be wary of being burnt by China but the drumbeat of bullish noises are banging ever louder from bank strategists, argues the FT’s Jennifer Hughes.

投资者可能担心被中国市场灼伤，但英国《金融时报》的珍妮弗?休斯(Jennifer Hughes)指出，银行策略师敲出的乐观的鼓点声越来越大了。

Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Citgroup are among the names countering their sceptical clients in putting the case for improving prospects for the country, particularly on calming fears over levels of leverage.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)、高盛(Goldman Sachs)和花旗集团(Citigroup)等银行都反驳了客户的质疑，提出中国前景正在改善，尤其是对中国杠杆水平的担忧在减轻。

“China bears can still find plenty to cavil at and can, of course, always argue the risk of a nasty policy surprise from Donald Trump outweighs a profit pick-up. But bullish analysts are showing increasing confidence and they can call on numbers, too.

“看空中国的人士仍然可以找到很多挑刺的理由，当然，他们也总能辩称唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)带来不利政策意外的风险要压过盈利增长。但看好中国的分析师信心越来越强，而且他们拿得出数据。”

“Funds invested in the S&P 500 or the FTSE Eurofirst a year ago would have returned 20 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively. The same money in the Hang Seng China Enterprises index would have produced a 28 per cent total return.”

“一年前投资于标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)和富时Eurofirst 300指数(FTSE Eurofirst 300)的基金的回报率分别为20%和14%。同样资金如果投资于恒生中国企业指数(Hang Seng China Enterprises Index)，那么总回报率将达到28%。”

But Aberdeen Asset Management’s David Smith sees a less positive signal emerging from Singapore, where the exchange is considering the listing of companies with multiple classes of shares carrying different voting rights — allowing a small group to keep a tight grip on control at the expense of wider shareholder rights.

但安本资产管理(Aberdeen Asset Management)的戴维?史密斯(David Smith)在新加坡看到的信号没那么积极，新加坡证交所正考虑让有多重股权结构的公司上市，这类公司的不同类别股票拥有不同的投票权，使少数人能够以牺牲更广大股东利益为代价牢牢掌握公司控制权。

“There is a real sense that were Singapore Exchange to make such a move, the global contagion would be swift. Instead of discussing dual-class shares, we should be designing a corporate governance framework to help investors operate as responsible stewards.”

“人们确实感觉到，如果新加坡证交所做出此举，这种做法将在全球快速蔓延。我们不应讨论双重股权架构，而是应设计一个公司治理框架，帮助投资者成为负责任的管家。”

Moving even further westwards in Asia, the FT’s Henny Sender finds more troubling developments in India’s power sector, where lending by banks has left the country’s financial system exposed.

在亚洲继续向西，英国《金融时报》的桑晓霓(Henny Sender)看到印度电力行业出现了更令人不安的变化，印度银行对该行业的贷款让该国金融体系面临风险。

“Investors should look more closely at the economy and particularly at the power sector because it is symbolic of the difficulties India faces. The deeply troubled power industry accounts for almost one-tenth of all bank loans in India and thus poses a threat to already weakened lenders.”

“投资者应更密切地关注经济，尤其是电力行业，因为它象征着印度面临的困境。面临严重困境的电力行业占印度全部银行贷款的近十分之一，因此对已被削弱的银行构成了威胁。”

The Federal Reserve’s rate increase was the big theme of the week both before and after confirmation of the news. Allianz’s Mohamed El-Erian forecast that a “beautiful rate normalisation” would be the overarching aim of the US central bank.

美联储加息是上周的重要主题，不管是在消息确认前还是消息确认后。安联(Allianz)的穆罕默德?埃尔-埃利安(Mohamed El-Erian)预测，“巧妙的利率正常化”将是美联储的首要目标。

“The Fed would be transitioning from a highly tactical (“data dependent”) mindset towards a more strategic one; and it is one that enables it to more confidently (and assertively) lead markets rather than follow them.”

“美联储将从一种高度战术型思维（‘依赖数据’）转向更战略性的思维；这将令其能够更自信（且更坚定）地引领市场，而不是追随市场。”

The FT’s Michael Mackenzie warns of the risks of a complacent bond market as fixed-income investors are not convinced that the Fed will be more aggressive.

英国《金融时报》的迈克尔?麦肯兹(Michael Mackenzie)对债券市场自满的风险提出警告，因固定收益投资者不相信美联储将变得更强硬。

“Having been consistently right over the economy and Fed policy for many years, one can understand the reluctance of the Treasury market to embrace a more bullish growth story. Such thinking may prove very costly for bond investors.”

“在多年来一直正确判断美国经济和美联储的政策之后，人们能够理解美国国债市场不愿接受一个更乐观的增长前景。这种想法可能让债券投资者付出巨大代价。”

“The Fed is walking the line successfully”, summarised the FT’s John Authers as the rate move went from news to fact.

英国《金融时报》的约翰?奥瑟兹(John Authers)在美联储加息从消息变成事实时总结道：“美联储在钢丝绳上走得很成功”。

“All of this may make this one of the most happily received rate increases on record. Insofar as the Fed’s aim was to raise rates as gently as possible, so as not to scare the children, it has succeeded. for now, the calm that has lasted since the election remains unpunctured.”

“所有这一切都可能使这次加息成为有记录以来市场最欣然接受的加息。如果说美联储的目标是尽可能温和地加息，以免吓到孩子们，那么它成功了。但目前，自大选结束以来持续的平静仍未被破坏。”

It has been tricky to tell how Brexit is being priced in by markets, argues the FT’s Elaine Moore, with gilts not providing a clear narrative.

英国《金融时报》的伊莱恩?摩尔(Elaine Moore)认为，现在很难确定市场在如何消化英国退欧的影响，英国金边债券没有提供明确的信号。

“By contrast, credit default swap spreads appear to have a more direct relationship to what a small number of investors believe the eventual shape of Brexit will mean for the UK economy. As a barometer of investors’ attitude during the two years of negotiations that will soon start, this small, unfashionable corner of the financial market may well start to attract more people and money.”

“相比之下，对于一小部分投资者所认为的英国退欧最终形态将对英国经济造成的影响，信用违约互换利差似乎有着更直接的关系。为期两年的退欧谈判即将启动，作为一个衡量在此期间投资者态度的指标，金融市场这块不太流行的小领域很有可能会开始吸引更多的人和资金。”

While last year’s “regime change” in the US stock market has boosted the opportunities for stockpicking, John Authers finds that active fund managers still face a long, hard fightback against passive investing.

尽管去年美国股市的“机制变革”增加了选股机会，但约翰?奥瑟兹认为，主动型基金经理仍面临着一个长期、艰难的对抗被动投资的过程。

The rise of algo trading and passive investing is bringing new patterns and pitfalls for investors, says the FT’s Robin Wigglesworth, who reveals five areas to watch on the terrain of machines and markets.

英国《金融时报》的罗宾?威格尔斯沃思(Robin Wigglesworth)表示，算法交易和被动投资的兴起正给投资者带来新的模式和陷阱，他提出了在机器领域和市场方面的5个关注点。

Marmite manufacturer Unilever is not a national champion and shareholders should be free to sell its stock, says the FT’s Neil Collins, who argues that they have much to thank “Warren Buffett and his Krafty krew” for the jump in the share price.

英国《金融时报》的尼尔?科林斯(Neil Collins)表示，Marmite制造商联合利华(Unilever)并非国家冠军企业，股东应有权出售其股票，他认为，他们要为该公司股价的飙升大大感谢“沃伦?巴菲特(Warren Buffett)及其卡夫收购团”。