短线观点:别看扁价值股

In a week in which technology shares reached record highs, and the valuations of Amazon and Facebook eclipsed $500bn, investors should revisit a 2016 trade that many thought had all but died out.

在美国科技股创历史新高、亚马逊(Amazon)和Facebook的市值超过5000亿美元的本周，投资者应该回顾一下2016年的一类交易；许多人曾以为这类交易已经没戏了。

Lost in the tech rally is the surprising turn from other cyclical sectors and the glimmers of hope they offered for the broader economy. It included upbeat commentary from bulldozer manufacturer Caterpillar and faster profit growth at aerospace group Boeing.

此轮科技股涨势遮盖了其他周期性板块的一个令人意外的转折，以及它们给整体经济带来的希望曙光。这包括推土机制造商卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)的乐观言论，以及航空航天集团波音(Boeing)盈利增长速度的提高。

Investors have long since written the obituary on the so-called reflation trade that gained momentum after the election of Donald Trump. Economic growth was supposed to quicken and inflation rise as the new administration pumped billions into infrastructure, cut taxes and defanged regulations. The eulogies may be premature.

投资者早就对所谓的通货再膨胀交易不抱希望，唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)当选后这类交易势头加大。经济增长理应加快，通胀理应上扬，因为新一届行政当局将向基础设施投入巨额资金，削减税收，并且拔掉监管的锋芒。但赞扬的话可能说得过早。

While value shares have lagged behind — advancing 4.6 per cent so far this year compared to the 16 per cent rise by growth stocks — a turning point may be in sight. A bounce in US consumer confidence and preliminary manufacturing PMIs, both reported this week, may also bode well for many of the traditional value sectors. The logic goes that if economic activity quickens, investors may no longer need to pay up for growth.

虽然价值型股票表现滞后——今年迄今为止上涨了4.6%，增长型股票则上涨了16%——但转折点可能已经看得到。本周公布的美国消费者信心数据和制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)初步数据双双反弹，可能对许多传统的价值型板块股票是利好。这里的逻辑是，如果经济活动加快，投资者可能就不再需要为增长支付溢价。

Quant strategists at AllianceBernstein note that a “value rally would be sustainable with some support from the macro environment”. The way they see it, markets would need to see higher interest rates, faster economic growth or a return of the reflation trade.

联博(AllianceBernstein)的量化交易测量师指出，“在宏观环境的部分支持下，一轮价值型股票涨势将是可持续的。”在他们看来，市场需要看到更高的利率，更快的经济增长或通货再膨胀交易卷土重来。

The market is not currently pricing in that possibility, particularly after the Federal Reserve acknowledged several poor inflation reports this week. Investors will have to wait for more progress on the earnings front for confirmation that economic activity is truly improving.

目前市场目前还没有从价格上计入这种可能性，特别是在美联储(Fed)本周承认了几份糟糕的通胀报告之后。投资者必须等待盈利方面有更多进展，才能确定经济活动真的在好转。

And therein may be the piece of good news, courtesy of mining group Freeport-McMoRan. “Chinese demand is better than most expected . . . and so it’s encouraging to see this — to see European demand improving, North America growing at a low rate,” Freeport’s chief executive said this week. That would mean the reflation story still has legs and that value stocks could yet find momentum.

而好消息可能已经有了，那是由采矿集团自由港迈克墨伦(Freeport-McMoRan)带来的。自由港的首席执行官本周表示：“中国需求好于多数人的预期……所以看到这一点令人鼓舞，同时我们也看到欧洲的需求在好转，而北美在以低速增长”。这将意味着通货再膨胀交易的故事仍有后劲，而价值型股票仍可能出现上涨势头。