中国需求将亚洲液化天然气价格推至3年高点

Chinese demand pushed Asian liquefied natural gas prices to a three-year high, as the country’s importers scramble for supplies in the face of Beijing’s move to reduce urban air pollution.

面对中国政府减少城市空气污染的举措，中国天然气进口商争相购入天然气供应，这一需求将亚洲的液化天然气的价格推高至3年来的高点。

This year’s rally in spot prices of the super-cooled fuel has surprised market executives and analysts, who had long been expecting a subdued market due to extra supplies of LNG from new projects. However, delays in production and China’s “2+26” pro-gas policy, aimed at controlling pollution in Beijing, Tianjin and 26 other cities, has propelled demand.

今年，这种超低温燃料现货价格的上涨令市场高管和分析师感到惊讶。长期以来他们一直预期，由于新的天然气项目将提供额外的液化天然气供应，市场反应将是疲软的。然而，天然气出产延迟及今年中国在“2+26”城市推行的亲天然气政策拉动了需求。这一政策的目的是控制北京、天津和其他26个城市的污染。

The Asian spot LNG index Japan-Korea Marker from S&P Global Platts rose to $10.04 per million British thermal units on Thursday, the highest level since December 2014, and a fifth higher since the same time last year.

标准普尔全球普氏(S&P Global Platts)的亚洲现货液化天然气指数日韩标杆(JKM)，周四升至每百万英热单位10.04美元，这是2014年12月以来的最高水平，比去年同期高五分之一。

“The unexpected winner of [China’s] environmental crackdown has been the huge increase in demand for natural gas,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ.

“（中国）环保举措的意外赢家，是对天然气需求的大幅上升，”澳新银行(ANZ)高级大宗商品策略师丹尼尔?海因斯(Daniel Hynes)说。

Chinese imports of LNG have been strong over the past 18 months, stepping up further in the second half of the year, which pushed Asian prices higher. In the first nine months of the year, import volumes rose 30 per cent, while winter demand was up about 40 per cent, according to energy consultants Wood Mackenzie.

过去18个月来，中国对天然气的进口一直很强劲，今年下半年势头更强，将亚洲的天然气价格推高。根据能源咨询公司伍德麦肯兹(Wood Mackenzie)的数据，今年头9个月，中国的天然气进口量增加了30%，冬季的天然气需求上升了约40%。

Due to the high demand, Chinese companies bought forward imports of contracted amounts of LNG and had to turn to the spot market, pushing up prices, said analysts.

分析师表示，由于需求旺盛，中国企业提前采购了天然气合同中约定的进口量，不得不转向现货市场，从而推高了天然气的价格。

PetroChina, for example, had bought around 70 per cent of its annual contract quantity by September, compared with 50 per cent last year, said Wood Mackenzie. “This means lower contracted offtake is left for the winter, and higher demand for spot,” said Wen Wang, China gas and LNG senior consultant.

比如，据伍德麦肯兹的数据，中石油(PetroChina)今年9月就采购了年度天然气合同中约定数量的约70%，而去年同一时间只采购了50%。伍德麦肯兹中国天然气和液化天然气高级咨询师Wen Wang说：“这意味着给冬天留下的合同剩余量更少，对现货的需求更高。”

The rise in Asian LNG prices comes as gas prices in Europe also increase in anticipation of higher demand in the face of colder weather. In the UK, “pipeline inflows into the country are reportedly stable, but prices are now subject to real and anticipated demand spikes as temperatures hit lower levels,” according to JBC Energy, a Vienna-based consultancy. Spanish prices were also firmer, it added.

亚洲液化天然气价格上升适逢欧洲的天然气价格也出现上升，原因是更寒冷的天气导致市场预期对天然气的需求即将升高。维也纳咨询公司JBC Energy表示，在英国，“据报经由输气管道进入该国的天然气数量保持稳定，但随着温度降至更低，价格现在受实际需求和预期需求升高的影响”。该公司补充称，西班牙的天然气价格也更加坚挺。

Although the spot LNG market could remain tight in the near future, “there are enough downside risks to suggest prices are vulnerable to some weakness over the coming months”, said Mr Hynes.

尽管现货天然气市场可能在近期保持紧张，海因斯表示：“有足够多的下行风险表明，价格容易受到未来数月的一些疲弱因素的影响。”

While Chinese LNG demand is expected to remain strong, steady shipments from delayed projects are expected to come to the market next year. Supplies from a ramp up of Chevron’s Wheatstone and Gorgon projects in Western Australia and exports from several projects in the US are also likely to mean that the LNG glut that has been anticipated will materialise in 2018.

尽管中国对液化天然气的需求预计将保持强劲，一些推迟的天然气项目提供的稳定天然气供应要到明年才能上市。雪佛龙(Chevron)在澳大利亚西部的Wheatstone和Gorgon天然气项目产量加大，这些项目带来的天然气供应，以及美国的几个天然气项目的出口，很可能意味着关于液化天然气将供过于求的预测，可能会在2018年变为现实。