关注社会:成功要素公司:小资本,大计划

SuccessFactors: Small cap, big plans
Since it went public in Nov. 2007, shares of SuccessFactors, an employee-performance software company, have traded all over the map.

If you bought in just after the IPO and hung in through the worst of the market's decline in the past year, you are still slightly ahead, up about 6%. To get there, however, you experienced a freefall during the market's November lows last year, with shares trading as low as $4.61, and a rocket ride back up since then.

The question investors in this $790-million-market-cap company ought to be asking themselves is, can that ride continue? There's reason to believe that it can.

For those unfamiliar with SuccessFactors (SFSF), the San Mateo, Calif.-based company sells a subscription-based service that, to date, has primarily helped companies conduct employee performance appraisals and set and assess employee goals. It's human resources stuff, and while not the sexiest corner of the software world, it has been a popular one during this recession.

In the second quarter of this year, SuccessFactors reported a year-over-year revenue growth of 44%. Thanks to big improvements in gross margin and lower costs, the company also broke even on an earnings per share basis (SuccessFactors has had a positive cash flow since the fourth quarter of 2008). With costs under control and revenue growing, SuccessFactors has been on a relative roll.

Goldman Sachs analyst Sarah Friar has a "buy" rating on the stock and last week raised her 12-month price target from $13 to $16. She sees two large trends keeping the wind at SuccessFactors' back.

One is the overall trend of companies large and small consuming their software via subscription -- the so-called software-as-a-service model that (CRM) pioneered and which SuccessFactors is built upon. And small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) make up about half of SuccessFactors' customers.

The other is the return, Friar says, of corporate spending on applications, with greater attention on employee management as both a down economy and a recovering one demands it.

"We are upping our numbers slightly based on stabilizing application spending and improved conditions for SMBs," Friar recently told clients, "combined with the company's continued diligence on cost."

That is the rosy near-term picture for SuccessFactors. Late last week the company brass revealed its longer-term product roadmap, which it is calling "Business Execution Software."

Fundamentally, it is a new set of applications that take SuccessFactors deeper into its customers' companies by marrying its employee performance and goals software with a new set of tools that help employees better align with, and execute on, overall corporate strategy.

If successful, it takes SuccessFactors from the HR office throughout the rest of the company. SuccessFactors thinks that will up its potential market from its current $16 billion to about $36 billion.

Those numbers are clearly theoretical at this point, but you gotta like the ambition. In the near-term, SuccessFactors is riding on an economic recovery and the need for better employee management as hiring ticks up. Longer term, however, if SuccessFactors can help companies execute strategy better with its new crop of software, its small-cap company status might be in for a big change.

成功要素公司（SuccessFactors）是一家提供员工绩效管理的软件公司，自从2007年11月上市以来，其已成功完成了大量的股份交易。

如果你在这家公司首次公开募股后就买进了它的股票，并且即使在去年市场最低靡的时刻都没有卖出，那么现在你手中的股票已经涨了约6%。 为此，你先是经受了去年11月市场状况的极速恶化，股价一度下跌到4.61美元，紧接着又目睹了股价的大幅上涨。

这种涨势能一直保持下去吗？这是这家市值7.9亿美元的公司的投资者应当问自己的一个问题，以下就是相信其可以的原因。

有些人可能不太了解成功要素公司。这家公司的总部位于加州圣马特奥市，销售订购式的服务，也就是帮助其它公司进行绩效评估，建立并评估员工目标。它经营的算是人力资源方面的业务，尽管它的软件称不上是最顶尖的，在经济衰退中却非常受欢迎。

今年第二季度，成功要素公司宣布其业绩同比增长了44%。大幅上升的毛利率和降低的成本使得公司在每股收益上也达到了平衡（该公司从2008年第4季度起就一直保有正现金流）。由于成本得到了有效控制并且收益一直在增加，其发展十分顺利。

高盛（Goldman Sachs）分析师萨拉•弗莱尔（Sarah Friar）认为成功要素公司的股票值得购买，并且在上周将其对该公司一年后的股价预测从每股13美元提升到了16美元。她认为该公司的成功得利于两大趋势。

第一，公司无论规模大小都可以通过订购方式购买成功要素公司的软件—即“软件即服务”模式，该模式是由公司创立的，成功要素公司正是建立在这种模式的基础上。中小规模的公司占到了该公司客户群体的一半。

第二，各公司开始重新投资各种软件的应用，并且给予员工管理更多的关注。不管是效益下滑的公司还是正在努力从衰退中恢复的公司都需要更好地管理其员工。

最近，弗莱尔对客户表示，“通过稳定在软件应用方面的投资，并且随着中小规模的公司情况的进一步好转，以及公司在成本控制上更加谨慎，我们的收益也有了一定的提高。”

这是对于该公司近期发展的一个美好展望。上周末公司公布了其长期的产品研发目标—“业务执行软件”。

这是一个新的软件系列，能够帮助员工更好地配合或执行公司的整体战略。通过将员工绩效、目标软件与这套新工具结合起来，其产品能够在客户的公司内得到更广泛的应用。

如果这套软件能够取得成功，成功要素公司的产品就能在各公司的各个部门得到充分推广，而不仅限于人力资源部门。公司认为这能够将其市场潜力从目前的160亿美元扩展到约360亿美元。

当然，这些在目前还只是理论上的推算，但远大的目标是要有的。短期内，随着经济的复苏，各公司开始雇佣新员工，为成功要素公司提供了发展机遇。长期看来，如果能够通过这个新软件更好地帮助各公司执行策略，这个小资本的公司的地位将会得到大幅提升。