亚洲美元短缺提高人民币地位

A few months ago, Fortescue Metalsplaced a $100m order in China for railway cars to transport iron ore from its Australian mines – except that the order was in renminbi, at the request of the Chinese exporter. Fortescue then turned to Australian bank ANZ to provide a hedge to protect against adverse currency moves between the Chinese currency and the Australian dollar. Because the Aussie dollar moves less against the renminbi than it does against the US dollar, the hedge was cheaper than if the sale was in greenbacks.

几个月前，澳大利亚矿商Fortescue Metals在中国下了一笔1亿美元的订单采购载货列车，其澳大利亚矿场生产的铁矿石要靠这些列车运出。这笔订单的不寻常之处在于，应中国出口商的要求，这笔贸易要以人民币计价。随后，Fortescue要求澳大利亚澳新银行(ANZ)提供一个对冲，防范澳元兑人民币汇率出现不利于己的变动。由于澳元兑人民币的汇率波动幅度小于澳元兑美元，因此，这一对冲的成本要低于以美元计价的贸易的对冲成本。

Meanwhile, in Hong Kong, foreign banks such as ANZare receiving calls from the big mainland banks asking them to refinance their Chinese renminbi trade books.

与此同时，在香港，澳新银行等外国银行接到中国内地大型银行的电话，后者要求它们为各自的人民币贸易账户再融资。

That is a challenge for most foreign banks, given that they generally lack the renminbi funding that would enable them to easily enter into such transactions.

这对多数外国银行构成了挑战，因为它们普遍缺少人民币资金、难以从事此类交易。

But that was precisely the point of such requests. Beijing wants to see the renminbi play a bigger role in trade, and these requests are meant to get the flow going.

但这恰恰是此类要求的目的所在。中国政府希望人民币能在贸易中发挥更大的作用，这些要求正是为了让人民币流动起来。

By agreeing to such transactions, foreign banks will have to increase their funding capabilities in renminbi, which will lead them in turn to seek renminbi deposits. And once they have those deposits, it will become easier for the banks to lend renminbi to their corporate clients in Asia and around the world, and help their customers manage their currency risk.

一旦外国银行同意从事此类交易，它们就必须提高自己的人民币融资能力，这反过来又会促使它们吸收人民币存款。而一旦有了人民币存款，这些银行就更容易向自己在亚洲和世界各地的企业客户发放人民币贷款、以及帮助客户控制汇率风险。

Beijing's desire to promote the renminbi comes at a fortuitous time. There is a dollar shortage in Asia, which threatens to restrict credit growth in the region. The shortage is partly related to Basel capital requirements. But there are also big new trends that are influencing both the supply of dollars and the cost of accessing those dollars.

中国政府提升人民币地位的计划赶上了一个有利时机。目前亚洲刚好出现美元短缺，可能会抑制地区的信贷增长。美元短缺部分归因于《巴塞尔协议》的资本金要求。但除此之外，还有一些重要的新趋势正在影响美元的供给和获取成本。

In the past, US dollar holders would recirculate dollars by putting them into the interbank market. But today the biggest holders of greenbacks are Asian central banks. And they are putting their dollars into US Treasuries rather than into the market.

过去，美元持有者把美元投入银行间市场，以此来使美元重新流动起来。但现在，美元的最大持有者是亚洲的各个央行。这些央行并没有把美元投入市场，而是投到美国国债上。

Moreover, there are new participants in the markets in Asia whose large appetite for US dollars is also contributing to the shortage. When the mainland tightened credit last year, Chinese banks began lending dollars to cash-strapped enterprises offshore in Hong Kong and elsewhere.

此外，亚洲市场还出现了新的参与者，它们吸纳美元的巨大胃口也促成了美元的短缺。去年中国内地收紧信贷时，中国的银行开始向香港和其他地区资金紧张的海外企业发放美元贷款。

In addition, as Singaporean and Malaysian banks outgrow their home markets, they too are looking to lend dollars. At the same time, both corporate treasurers and local investors in Asia continue to ply the carry trade, borrowing in low yielding currencies such as the dollar to invest in higher-yielding local currencies.

而且，随着新加坡和马来西亚银行的规模不断扩大、不再满足于本土市场，它们也在想方设法发放美元贷款。与此同时，亚洲的投资者和企业财务官们仍在不停地从事套息交易，即借入美元等低收益货币，然后投资于本地的高收益货币。

Given the dollar shortage, anything that reduces demand for dollars has to be a good thing. The euro today looks like an alternative that isn't very credible.

考虑到美元短缺，任何可抑制美元需求的东西无疑都是人们乐见的。如今的欧元似乎可替代美元，但欧元并不十分可靠。

Japan may be considered a haven today, but the Japanese yen has never served as a contender for status as a serious reserve currency.

今天，人们或许会把日本视为"避风港"，但日元却从未努力争取成为重要的储备货币。

Today renminbi-denominated transactions are a small part of total global trade, but the number of such transactions is growing and the rate of growth is accelerating, with the explicit approval of the Chinese government. Last autumn, the People's Bank of China said it would like to see precisely 10 per cent of China's trade denominated in the local currency. Today it may be over 12 per cent.

目前，在全球贸易总额中，人民币计价贸易只占一小部分；但是，在中国政府的明确支持下，此类贸易的数量正在增长，增速正在加快。去年秋天，中国央行表示，它认为人民币计价贸易在中国贸易总额中的占比刚好为10%。现在，这一占比可能已经超过12%。

Chinese banks are a big source of liquidity for the whole region. They are, for example, financing many of the big infrastructure projects from India and Indonesia to the Philippines and Sri Lanka. Project finance specialists say it will be a matter of time before many of those projects are denominated in the Chinese currency.

中国的银行是整个地区流动性的一大来源。例如，它们为从印度、印尼到菲律宾、斯里兰卡的众多大型基础设施项目提供融资。项目融资专家表示，其中许多项目用人民币计价只是时间问题。

Many bankers expect that capital controls in China will be lifted as early as 2015. ANZ expects the renminbi to be the second largest currency for global trade by that time. Both lending in renminbi and investment in renminbi will swiftly follow.

很多银行家预计，中国对资本的管制最早将于2015年解除。澳新银行预计，届时人民币将成为全球贸易中的第二大货币。人民币贷款和人民币投资很快也将跟进。

Yet there are significant challenges facing China. Some analysts say that China may post its first balance of payments deficit since 1992 this quarter. Banks are beginning to face liquidity and funding challenges.

不过，中国也面临着严峻挑战。部分分析人士指出，本季度，中国国际收支或许将录得1992年以来的首个赤字。中国银行业开始面临流动性和融资困难。

If capital flight, which seems to be increasing following the scandals in Chongqing, becomes a serious issue, the ambitious timetable for reforms such as lifting capital controls would probably be extended, possibly for years.

如果资本外逃发展为严重问题，为废除资本管制等改革举措设置的雄心勃勃的时间表，很可能会延期，甚至可能延期数年。自重庆事件以来，中国的资本外逃似乎愈演愈烈。

Sceptics say that the efforts to get foreigners to hold renminbi come precisely at the time that the currency is no longer appreciating. Indeed, it trades below where the PBoC officially fixes the rate. But even most sceptics expect the renminbi to gain in value in the long term.

怀疑论者表示，让外国人持有人民币的努力恰好出现在人民币不再升值的时期。确实，现在的人民币汇率低于中国央行设定的水平。不过，大多数怀疑论者仍预期，人民币在长期内将会升值。

The same cannot be said of the prospects for the US dollar – though at the moment it looks attractive on a relative basis. The renminbi seems by far the likeliest candidate to at least challenge it, tomorrow if not today.

美元的前景就不同了——尽管美元当前似乎相对较有吸引力。人民币显然是最有可能至少对美元地位构成挑战的货币，即使今天不行，未来有一天也会撼动美元。