Sliding Backwards 伊拉克在走下坡路

AT LEAST 100 Iraqis perished on July 23rd in 30-plus bombings and shootings in no fewer than 18 towns across the country. It was the deadliest set of co-ordinated attacks in a single day for at least two years. In a statement online the day before, the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Bakir al-Baghdadi, called for Iraq's Shia-led government under Nuri al-Maliki to be toppled. Ordinary Iraqis of all sectarian stripes dread the intensification of a terrorist campaign by Sunni jihadists. But even more do they dread the possible resumption of the sectarian mayhem between Sunni and Shia Muslims that devastated the country between 2005 and 2007.

7月23日，伊拉克全国各地不下18座城镇发生30余起爆炸和枪击事件，造成至少100名伊拉克人丧生。这是两年多来在单日内发生的最致命的一系列连环袭击。此前一天，基地组织在伊拉克的领导人阿布巴克尔·巴格达迪（Abu Bakir al-Baghdadi）在网上发表声明，呼吁推翻由努瑞·马利基（Nuri al-Maliki）控制的伊拉克什叶派政府。所有宗教派系的普通伊拉克人都在担心逊尼派圣战分子制造的恐怖活动加剧。但他们更加害怕的是，2005年至2007年间对国家造成严重破坏的逊尼派穆斯林和什叶派穆斯林之间的教派混战可能会重新爆发。

The spreading violence in Syria, which many Iraqis view as a specifically Sunni rebellion against a regime dominated by an offshoot of Shia Islam, is causing consternation in Iraq. As Syrian rebels seize border posts, Iraqi refugees who once fled from their homeland are returning. When American troops were still in Iraq, Syria was the main haven for al-Qaeda insurgents infiltrating into Iraq to attack the infidel occupier. Now the regimes of Bashar Assad in Syria and Mr Maliki in Iraq both find themselves targets of Sunni jihadists.

叙利亚持续蔓延的暴力在伊拉克造成恐慌，许多伊拉克人将其视为是一场针对由伊斯兰教什叶派分支控制政权的逊尼派叛乱。随着叙利亚反对派控制边防哨所，曾经逃离家乡的伊拉克难民正在回归祖国。在美国军队驻扎伊拉克期间，基地组织武装分子渗透入伊拉克袭击异教徒占领者，而叙利亚是他们的主要避难所。现在，叙利亚的阿萨德政权和伊拉克的马利基政权发现自己都成了逊尼派圣战分子的袭击目标。

But Mr Maliki, who has been in charge since 2006, is opposed not just by Sunni jihadists. Many moderate Iraqis, both Shias and Sunnis, fear he is heading down a path to dictatorship. The political atmosphere is toxic. No meaningful legislation, apart from an annual budget, has been passed for several years. One of the country's two vice-presidents, Tareq al-Hashemi, a Sunni, is being tried in absentia for alleged links to terrorism. Iraq's Kurds are increasingly divorced from the rest of the country: their regional government has now signed 48 oil contracts without the consent of the national government in Baghdad, which is infuriated. Meanwhile people in the capital and other towns, suffering sweltering temperatures during the fasting month of Ramadan, are frequently bereft of electricity. There have been angry mass protests in Basra, the main town of the south, against dire public services.

然而对于自2006年以来一直掌权的马利基而言，反对者不仅仅是逊尼派圣战分子。许多立场温和的伊拉克人，包括什叶派和逊尼派，担心他将走向独裁。政治氛围异常诡谲。数年来，除了年度预算外，没有通过任何有意义的法案。该国两位副总统之一，逊尼派的塔里克·哈希米（Tareq al-Hashemi）因被控与恐怖主义有染而正被缺席审判。伊拉克的库尔德人日益与该国其他地方分离：在没有取得巴格达国家政府同意的情况下，他们的地方政府已经签署了48项石油合约，这令巴格达大为光火。与此同时，首都和其他城镇的民众在斋月期间忍受着高温闷热天气，却经常被切断电力供应。在南部重镇巴士拉（Basra），有愤怒的群众抗议糟糕的公共服务。

However, Mr Maliki is still managing to shore up support, mainly among his fellow Shias, who make up a good 60% of the population. One of the Kurds' two main leaders, Jalal Talabani, the country's president, who wants to sustain the status quo by keeping Mr Maliki in place, has ensured that parliament does not have a chance to vote on a no-confidence motion.

然而，马利基仍然在设法争取支持，主要是争取他的什叶派同胞，其足足占了60%的人口。库尔德人的两个主要领导人之一，该国总统贾拉勒·塔拉巴尼（Jalal Talabani）想要保住马利基的权位以维持现状，他已经作出保证，议会不会有机会对不信任动议案进行投票表决。

Iyad Allawi, a secular Shia who heads the main Sunni bloc in parliament and is Mr Maliki's chief opponent there, has been weakened by defections from his party. Meanwhile, Mr Maliki has authorised a review of the terms under which army officers from the era of Saddam Hussein were sacked after his fall; though many of them are Sunnis, they might back Mr Maliki if he were to reinstate them. Otherwise he fears they may be drawn into a new Sunni insurgency, perhaps even one led by al-Qaeda.

伊亚德·阿拉维（Iyad Allawi）是领导议会中主要逊尼派集团的一名世俗什叶派，并且是马利基的首要反对者，然而党内倒戈已经削弱了他的力量。与此同时，马利基已经授权重新审查涉及属于萨达姆时期而在他倒台后被解雇的那些军官的相关条款；尽管他们当中有许多人是逊尼派，但如果马利基能够恢复他们的地位，他们也许会支持马利基。否则，马利基担心他们可能会被拉进一场新的逊尼派叛乱，或许甚至是由基地组织领导的叛乱。

Muqtada al-Sadr, a populist Shia cleric with a big following in Baghdad's Shia districts and elsewhere, remains a wild card in the power game. After spending the past few years in Iran supposedly engrossed in scholarship, he is back in Iraq. He has consorted with Kurdish leaders and with Mr Allawi, issuing ultimatums telling Mr Maliki to reform or go. Mr Maliki has so far made no effort to accommodate him. But unless he reaches out beyond his core Shia constituency, the bloodshed of July 23rd may be the harbinger of wider and more menacing sectarian strife.

民粹主义什叶派教士穆克塔达·萨德尔（Muqtada al-Sadr）在巴格达的什叶派地区和及其他地方拥有大批追随者，他仍然是权力游戏中的一个不确定因素。过去几年他一直待在伊朗，据说是一心扑在学术研究上，现在他回到了伊拉克。他一直与库尔德领导人及阿拉维往来紧密，还发布最后通牒要马利基要么改革要么下台。到目前为止，马利基一直没有为接纳他的观点作出过任何努力。但如果马利基的势力不能触及到他的核心什叶派选区以外，那么7月23日的流血事件就可能成为更广泛，更残酷教派冲突的预兆。