计划生育政策有望调整, 人口问题面临新形势

China should consider adjusting its family planning policy, as structural problems have overtaken excessive growth as the most significant population-related problem, a government think tank said yesterday.

政府智囊团昨日表示，中国应考虑调整计划生育政策，因为结构性问题已超越过快增长成为最重要的人口问题。

Problems in population structure, quality and distribution have become increasingly visible and will have a profound impact on China's future social and economic development, the China Development Research Foundation reported.

中国发展研究基金会报告说，人口结构、质量和分布中存在的问题已经日益明显，并将对中国未来的经济和社会发展产生深远影响。

China's population has seen a declining annual growth rate, slowing to 0.57 percent in the first decade of the 21st century, down from 1.07 percent in the previous 10 years, according to the report. Its population situation is quite different from that of 30 years ago, when a family planning policy limited the majority of urban families to just one child.

根据该报告，中国人口年增长率已经出现了下降，相比前一个十年的1.07%，在二十一世纪第一个十年里放缓至0.57％。人口形势与30年前相比是完全不同的，那时计划生育政策限制大多数城市家庭只生一个孩子。

The report said the population is heading for negative growth and an ultra-low fertility rate, adding that it also faces issues related to aging, gender imbalances, urbanization, an expanding shortage of migrant workers and an only-child generation.

报告说，人口问题朝着负增长和超低生育率转移，补充说人口也将面临老龄化、性别失衡、城市化、不断扩大的民工荒，以及独生子女这一代有关的问题。

The CDRF said the government should gradually loosen the one-child policy over the next three years in regions where family planning has been strictly implemented. By 2020, there will be no need to continue birth planning, as people will make more rational decisions on birth issues, the CDRF said in its report.

中国发展研究基金会说政府应该在未来三年中严格执行计划生育的地区逐步放宽独生子女政策。中国发展研究基金会在报告中说到2020年将没有必要继续计划生育，人们会在生育问题上做出更合理的决策。

China will also have an ultra-low fertility rate after 2026 and that the government should start encouraging families to have more children.

2026年以后中国也将面临超低生育率，政府将开始鼓励家庭生育更多的孩子。

The family planning policy was introduced around 1980 to rein in China's surging population by encouraging late marriages and pregnancies, as well as limiting most urban couples to one child and most rural couples to two children.

计划生育政策1980年左右出台以控制中国人口的激增，鼓励晚婚晚育，以及限制大多数城市夫妇只生一个孩子和农村夫妇生两个孩子。

"The family planning policy has had a profound influence on China's economic and social development," said the CDRF.

“计划生育政策对中国的经济和社会发展产生了深远的影响，” 中国发展研究基金会说。

The implementation of the policy has reduced the pressure created by a rapidly rising population, made contributions to economic growth and helped improve population quality.

政策的实施减少了激增人口造成的压力，对经济增长和提高人口素质做出了贡献。

However, China has paid a huge political and social cost for the policy, as it has resulted in social conflict, high administrative costs and led indirectly to a long-term gender imbalance at birth. Efforts should be made to support one-child and disadvantaged families in family planning, the report said.

然而，中国已经为这一政策付出了巨大的政治和社会成本，因为它导致了社会冲突、高行政成本，间接地导致了长期的性别比例失衡。报告说应努力支持在计划生育中一个孩子的弱势家庭。

It also pointed out the aging population and the fact that China's "demographic dividend" has already ended and will pose a severe challenge for the country's development.

它也指出了人口老龄化以及中国的“人口红利”事实已经结束，并将为国家的发展造成严峻挑战。

"This means China cannot rely on an unlimited labor supply for its future economic development, but must instead boost its total factor productivity," said Cai Fang, director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Cai, one of the writers of the report, urged the government to increase investment in healh care and education.

“这意味着中国未来的经济发展不能依靠劳动力的无限供给，而必须提高人整体的生产率，”蔡昉说，中国社会科学研究院人口与劳动经济研究所所长。蔡昉，该报告的笔者之一，敦促政府增加医疗保健和教育上的投资。