户籍制度改革是重振中国经济的关键

As China's growth slows toward a 20-year low, leaders are searching for a way to revive the economy's flagging fortunes. The suggestion from some of China's top policy wonks: reform the hukou system.

在中国经济增速滑向20年低点之际，中国领导人正在寻找重振经济的方式。中国一些高级政策专家给出的建议是：改革户籍制度。

That was the message that came through loud and clear from a meeting of top academics and policy advisers at a conference hosted by the government's Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on Friday.

这是上周五中国社会科学院主办的由高级学者和决策者参加的会议清晰传达出的信息。

China's hukou system -- a social management system that ties benefits like health care and pensions to a person's place of birth -- prevents 200 million-plus migrant workers from fully participating in the labor market, said Cai Fang, director of the Institute of Population Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

中国社科院人口与劳动经济研究所所长蔡昉说，中国户籍制度使2亿多农民工无法全部进入劳动力市场参与就业。中国户籍制度是一个社会管理体系，将医疗和养老等福利与居民出生地联系在一起。

'Migrant workers don't have the same benefits as the urban residents,' Mr. Cai said at the economic forum in Beijing, and 'that has significantly limited their participation in the labor market.' That is because without access to health care, pensions or education for their children in their host city, migrants must return to their hometowns to settle down and raise a family.

蔡昉在这次于北京举行的经济论坛上说，农民工无法享受和城镇居民一样的福利，这在很大程度上限制了他们的劳动力市场参与率。他们无法在城市享受医疗、养老或子女教育等福利，所以最后不得不返回家乡来养家糊口。

Reforms that allow migrants to tap urban benefits could boost the size of the labor force, supporting China's growth, Mr. Cai said. If the labor participation rate -- economist speak for the share of the working-age population that is actually working -- rises by one percentage point each year from 2011 to 2020, it would lift China's economic growth potential by 0.88 percentage point each year, he added.

蔡昉说，允许农民工享受城市福利的改革可以扩大劳动力规模，进而支持中国经济增长。他还说，如果劳动参与率从2011年到2020年每年上升一个百分点，则每年可能会给中国经济增速带来0.88个百分点的提振。经济学家将就业年龄人口中实际参与工作的人数占总人数的比例称为劳动参与率。

And that reform might not cost as much as some fear. The average cost for a migrant worker to become a urban resident is about 2,500 yuan ($409) each year, and the total fiscal costs over the 15 years between 2015 and 2030 are estimated 48% of the nation's total fiscal revenue in 2012, Kam Wing Chan, a professor from the University of Washington, said at the CASS event.

户籍制度改革成本可能没有一些人担忧的那么高。华盛顿大学(University of Washington)教授陈金永(Kam Wing Chan)在此次会议上说，每年每个农民工成为城市居民的平均成本是人民币2,500元左右，估计2015年至2030年这15年的总财政成本占中国2012年财政总收入的48%。

'Plus, at the beginning of the transition, those workers are net contributors to the economy, just like the undocumented immigrants in the U.S.,' Mr. Chan said, noting that because migrants are typically young and without children, the costs of providing them health care, pensions and education is relatively low.

陈金永说，更重要的是，在农民工市民化的初期，这些农民工对经济的贡献大于索取，正如美国的非法移民一样，因为他们多为无子女的年轻劳动力，城市为其提供的医疗、养老、教育成本也会相对较低。

Still, to make it work Beijing needs to give local governments more power to raise taxes, and the center needs to share more obligations of providing public services. One proposal from He Yupeng, a researcher with the Development Research Center of the State Council: The central government could cover the costs of interprovincial migration, while local governments could take care of migrant workers who move within the provinces.

然而，为了使改革能顺利进行，中国政府需要给予地方政府更多权利来增税，以及分担更多的提供公共服务的成本。中国国务院发展研究中心农村经济研究部研究员何宇鹏给出的一个建议是，中央政府可以承担省际人口迁移的成本，地方政府可以承担省内农民工迁移的成本。

'What's happening now is the cities that have opened up the hukou are those nobody wants to go to, and the cities that are slow in loosening their grip on hukou control are those with job opportunities,' Mr. He said. If the central government stepped up to help cover the costs, major cities like Beijing and Shanghai might be more willing to open their doors.

何宇鹏说，现在的情况是放开户籍限制的城市没人愿意去，而不放开的往往是那些就业机会集中的地区。如果中央政府承担更多的公共服务开支，北京和上海等大城市可能更愿意放开户籍限制。