年股市崩盘的概率有多大(2)
Everyone on Wall Street, Main Street and Washington keeps forgetting the fundamentals of market cycles. Please remember: Investors Business Daily's Bill O'Neill, author of 'How to Make Money in Stocks, ' says market cycles average 3.75 years up, nine months down.
华尔街、大街上和华盛顿的每一个人都在不断地忘记市场周期的基本原理。请记住：《笑傲股市》(How to Make Money in Stocks)作者、《投资者商务日报》(Investors Business Daily)的比尔•奥尼尔(Bill O'Neill)说，市场的上行周期平均为3.75年，下行周期平均为九个月。But 'averages' are old data, not future facts. Happy talk won't restart a bull. And more warnings won't puncture an old bubble. Cycles have lives of their own, move up and down when they damn well feel like it. That's nature.
但“平均”讲的是以前的情况，不是未来的事实。乐观言论不会让牛市重启，新的警告声音也不会刺破旧的泡沫。周期有自己的生命，该上行的时候上行，该下行的时候下行。这是很自然的事情。
7. Political wars guarantee intense volatility through 2014-2016 elections
7. 由于政治争斗的存在，2014年-2016年的选举过程中注定会有频繁的波动Sorry, folks, but if you're an investor hoping America's political internecine wars will improve in the near future, just don't invest. The war between Congress with it's abysmal 10% approval rating and the president, the war between the Dems, GOP and the tea party, is going to get even worse, upsetting markets and the economy even more.
对不起了各位，但如果你是投资者，并希望美国政坛的互相残杀会在短时间内改善，那你还是别投资了。支持率跌至10%深谷的国会与总统之间，民主党、共和党和茶党之间的战争将越打越激烈，扰乱市场，更扰乱经济。Why? Just add in the intensifying anger after the Supreme Court's decisions over same-sex marriage issues and gays, add in the growing anger over abortions, Obamacare, gun control, food stamps, the new voter suppression pushed by GOP governors, plus more threats by conservatives and the tea party to dig in their heels and fight to overturn everything and increase austerity too.
为什么这么说呢？只需想想最高法院对同性婚姻问题做出裁决之后人们越来越强烈的怒火，想想人们围绕堕胎、奥巴马医改、枪支管制、食品券、共和党州长新推的选民压制等问题越来越强烈的怒火，另外还有保守派和茶党顽固不化，力争推翻一切立法并加强财政紧缩。This is all bad news for investors, just as America's 30-year bond bull is ending.
对投资者来说，这一切都是坏消息。而现在恰好是美国30年债券牛市行情即将终结的时候。8. Employment futures weak as pensions drain states, municipalities
8. 随着养老金抽干州市财政，就业前景疲弱Any 'jobs recovery is years away in most cities, ' says USA Today. And in reviewing famed analyst Meredith Whitney's new book, 'The Fate of States, ' she warns that 'excessive pensions crowd out both liberal goals such as education spending and tax cuts that conservatives want.'
《今日美国》(USA Today)说，对大多数城市来讲，就业复苏即使能实现，也得是在好几年过后。浏览知名分析师梅瑞迪斯•惠特尼(Meredith Whitney)新书《州的命运》(The Fate of States)时你会看到，她提醒说，“过多的养老金会挤出教育支出等自由派目标，也会挤出保守派希望实现的减税目标”。Yes, pensions for retirees at state and municipal levels are preventing recovery. Corporate pensions are also a big problem, widening America's inequality gap: Drug company McKesson's CEO has been boss for 14 years, but will retire with a $159 million pension, while the income of America's average wage earner has stagnated for 30 years.
是的，州市层级的退休金妨碍了复苏。公司养老金也是一个大问题，它加剧了美国的贫富分化：药品公司麦克森(McKesson)的CEO才当14年的老大，但退休时将有1.59亿美元的退休金，而美国一般打工族的收入已经30年止步不前。9. Investors brains are so distracted, in denial, they won't get out in time.
9. 投资者如此不在乎，如此不接受事实，他们不会及时逃出。A Bubble With No Name Yet is still a bubble. But, Americans are too distracted, too numb, too in denial to hear the warnings. Reminds me of my headline back on March 20, 2000. 'Next crash, sorry you'll never hear it coming.'
“暂时没有名字的泡沫”依然是泡沫。但美国人太不在乎、太麻木、太不接受事实，所以听不到警告声音。这让我想起2000年3月20日我一篇文章的标题：“下次崩盘，对不起你们永远不会听到它的到来”(Next crash, sorry you'll never hear it coming)。But the crash hit. The economy tanked. The recession lasted 30 months. Wall Street lost over $8 trillion of our retirement money. In the first decade of the 21st century, from the 2000 dot-com crash till 2010 disaster Wall Street's had a negative inflation-adjusted performance. Today Wall Street's returns are just barely beating inflation. No wonder investors feel cheated by Wall Street's casinos.
但崩盘还是来了。经济下滑，衰退持续了30个月，华尔街把我们的退休金拿去亏了超过八万亿美元。从2000年网络股崩盘到2010年的灾难，在21世纪的头10年里，华尔街经通胀因素调整后的绩效为负。今天华尔街的回报率也只是刚刚战胜通货膨胀。难怪投资者觉得被华尔街的赌场骗了。10. Economics is killing the economy, but like coke addicts we won't stop
10. 经济学在害死经济，但就像可卡因成瘾者一样，我们停不下来Nobel economists like Joseph Stiglitz, environmental activists like Bill McKibben, George Soros and the Institute for New Economic Thinking, politicians like Al Gore and other modern thinkers all warn us that traditional economists (and the banks, businesses and government agencies they work for) are addicted to bad economic theories, And they're sabotaging America's future.
约瑟夫•斯蒂格利茨(Joseph Stiglitz)等诺贝尔经济学奖得主、比尔•麦吉本(Bill McKibben)等环保活动人士、乔治•索罗斯(George Soros)及新经济思维研究所(Institute for New Economic Thinking)、阿尔•戈尔(Al Gore)和其他现代思想家全都提醒我们，传统经济学家（以及他们效力的银行、企业和政府机构）都已对坏的经济学理论成瘾，他们在破坏美国的未来。The theories, yes, and also the bad statistics traditional economists use to mislead America: The worst offender, GDP is a narrow, misleading measure of America's long-term growth. And second, our obsessive focus on short-term numbers, daily stock closings, quarterly earnings, annual returns, is stunting America's long-term growth.
除了这些理论之外，还有传统经济学家用来误导美国的坏的统计数据：最恶劣的是GDP，它在衡量美国长期增长的时候是一个狭窄的、误导人的指标。其次，我们对短期数据（每日收盘情况、季度业绩、年度回报等）的执迷正在阻碍美国的长远增长。
