中国钢铁产量下降 但压缩产能任重道远

China's production of crude steel in November fell to its lowest monthly volume this year. The decline is partly due to seasonal factors but also comes as the government is taking steps to curb overcapacity in the sector.

中国11月份粗钢产量创下今年以来的单月最低水平，产量下降部分归因于季节性因素，同时也因为政府推出了限制钢铁产能的措施。

The country makes nearly half the world's steel, and its output of the metal is a bellwether for industrial demand and affects global prices for iron ore, which is used in steel production. Chinese mills last month produced 60.9 million metric tons, a 6.5% decline from October to the lowest monthly level since December last year, the National Statistics Bureau said Tuesday.

中国钢铁产量占全球产量的近一半，钢铁产量是工业需求的风向标，并影响着国际铁矿石价格，后者是钢铁生产的原料。中国国家统计局周二公布，11月份中国钢铁产量为6,090万吨，较10月份下降6.5%，为去年12月份以来的最低单月产量。

Partly the decline is explained by slower construction of buildings and other projects in the winter months, reducing demand for steel, said Vaseem Karbhari, analyst with data provider The Steel Index.

数据供应商钢铁指数(The Steel Index)分析师Vaseem Karbhari称，产量下降的部分原因是，冬季建筑和其他项目建设活动放缓，导致钢铁需求减少。

China's steel mills, though, are facing other challenges. Policy makers want to shift the nation's growth model away from one led by investment, which creates construction projects that tap on heavy industry like steel mills, to one that fosters more domestic consumption and local innovation.

不过中国钢铁企业也面临其他挑战。中国领导人希望把经济增长模式从投资驱动转向由内需和本地创新拉动。投资带来的基础设施建设项目，可刺激钢铁企业等重工业的需求。

Last month, the government announced fresh edicts aimed at downsizing the steel sector, including an extension of a moratorium on building new capacity. 'With environmental policy tightening in some areas, some steel mills have begun to halt production,' the China Iron and Steel Association said in a report Monday.

中国政府上个月公布了压缩钢铁产能的新政策，其中包括延长停止审批钢铁项目的期限。中国钢铁工业协会周一发布报告称，随着一些地区执行严格的环保政策，部分钢厂已开始停产。

Authorities also have been closing steel makers, including one mill in northern Hebei province in November, as the government has been trying to cut down the size of the steel industry to control pollution, among other goals.

有关部门也着手关闭一些钢铁企业，11月份拆除了河北省北部的一个钢铁生产设施。出于控制污染等目的，政府一直在致力于压缩钢铁产能。

In the longer-run, some analysts expect this trend to lead to lower demand for iron ore and other inputs for steel production.

一些分析师预计，从长远来看，这一趋势预示着铁矿石和其他钢铁生产投入原料的需求将出现下降。

'As China shifts from an investment-driven economy towards a more consumer-led one, long-term demand growth for metals is expected to slow down,' Singapore-based Fitch Ratings director Suaik Lim said.

惠誉国际评级(Fitch Ratings)驻新加坡的主管林树毅(Suaik Lim)表示，随着中国经济由投资拉动向消费拉动型转型，预计对金属的长期需求增长将放缓。

Still, some observers say it's too early for the change of tack to have affected steel producers in a big way. Platts, a commodity price and news provider, said the shuttered Hebei facility produced less than 7 million metric tons a year from a total nationwide estimated output of 1 billion metric tons per year.

但是一些观察人士表示，目前这种经济战略的转变还不会对钢铁制造商产生重大影响。

Platts said it was unlikely efforts to curb overcapacity in the steel-making sector would show any progress in 2014.

大宗商品价格和资讯提供商普氏能源资讯(Platts)表示，被关停的河北钢厂的年产能不足700万吨，而全国的年产能估计为10亿吨。普氏能源资讯表示，遏制钢铁行业产能过剩的努力在2014年不大可能取得任何进展。

Despite November's decline, China steel output in 2013 is still likely to top last year's 716.5 million tons for a record-high annual volume. Output in the first 11 months reached 713 million tons, buoyed by a strong third quarter.

尽管11月份的产量下滑，但是中国今年的钢铁产量仍有望超过去年7.165亿吨的产量，创造年产量纪录。今年前11个月中国的钢铁产量达到7.13亿吨，因第三季度产量较高。

Beijing continues to rely on stimulus spending on infrastructure to boost economic growth, which has underpinned demand for steel and iron ore.

中国继续依赖刺激基建投资来促进经济增长，这支撑了对钢铁和铁矿石的需求。

In November, China imported 77.8 million tons of iron ore, much of it from Brazil and Australia, a record monthly total. Mills typically stockpile iron ore at the end of the year, as output from domestic mines slow due to freezing weather. That has helped iron ore prices recover from a slump earlier this year.

中国11月份进口铁矿石7,780万吨，大部分来自巴西和澳大利亚，进口量创月度纪录。这提振铁矿石价格由今年早些时候的跌势中反弹。钢铁厂通常会在年底时囤积铁矿石，因为受寒冷天气影响，国内矿山的产量下滑。

The strong imports also came after authorities in the summer made it easier for companies to import iron ore. Sixty-eight new importers joined in the trading since new measures took effect in July, the China Iron and Steel Association said Monday. The previous system limited imports to just 118 license holders.

中国政府在夏季推出了方便公司进口铁矿石的政策。中国钢铁工业协会周一表示，新政策7月开始生效后，又有68家进口商获得了铁矿石进口资质，之前拥有该资质的进口商只有118家。

Of course, a tilt away from heavy industry is likely to lead to slower overall growth for China - with big implications for steel and iron ore. But that should take time.

毫无疑问，降低对重工业的依赖程度可能导致中国整体经济增长放缓（这将对钢铁和铁矿石产生重大影响），但是这需要时间。