世界银行下调全球增长预期

The World Bank has cut its forecast for global growth, warning that the world economy remained overly reliant on the “single engine” of the US recovery.

世界银行(WB)降低了对全球经济增长的预期，并警告说全球经济依然过度依赖美国复苏这“唯一一台引擎”。

The Bank said it expected lower oil prices to provide a boost to global activity. But it warned several headwinds would mitigate the effect of the falling cost of crude. These include weak confidence among consumers and businesses and the inability of big central banks to cut interest rates below their record-low levels to boost inflation expectations.

该行表示，预计油价的降低会对全球经济活动起到促进作用。不过，该行警告说，几大不利因素会抵消原油价格下跌的影响。这些不利因素包括消费者和企业信心不足，以及各大央行无法通过将利率降至创纪录低点提升通胀预期。

“The global economy is running on a single engine,” said Kaushik Basu, chief economist at the World Bank. “It is only the US economy that is forging ahead in a global economy with so much uncertainty. We need several engines,” he added.

世行首席经济学家考希克•巴苏(Kaushik Basu)表示：“全球经济正靠着唯一一台引擎运转。目前，在全球经济不确定因素众多的情况下，只有美国经济一枝独秀。我们需要更多的引擎。”

In its twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects, the World Bank forecasts the world economy will expand by 3 per cent this year and by 3.3 per cent in 2016. In June the Bank’s economists had predicted global growth this year and next to be 3.4 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively.

在半年发布一次的《全球经济展望》(Global Economic Prospects)中，世界银行预计今年全球经济将增长3%，而2016年则会增长3.3%。去年6月，该行经济学家曾预计，今明两年全球经济增长率将分别是3.4%和3.5%。

The Bank lifted its forecasts for growth in the US this year from 3 per cent to 3.2 per cent, while slashing those for the eurozone from 1.8 per cent to 1.1 per cent. The UK is expected to grow by 2.9 per cent in 2015.

该行将美国今年的增长率预期从3%提升至3.2%。同时，该行将欧元区的增长率预期从1.8%降至1.1%。2015年，该行预计英国将增长2.9%。

Middle-income countries were hit by a raft of downgrades, with Russia now expected to contract by 2.9 per cent instead of growing by 1.5 per cent. South Asia provided a rare bright spot, with forecasts for 2015 lifted by 0.2 percentage points to 6.1 per cent.

中等收入国家则有许多遭遇了向下修正。俄罗斯预计会收缩2.9%，而不是增长1.5%。相比之下，南亚是少见的亮点，2015年的增长预期向上修正了0.2个百分点，达到6.1%。

The Washington-based institution said it expected the 60 per cent drop in the cost of crude since June to lift growth by around 0.5 per cent over the medium run. But the Bank struck a downbeat tone on the prospects for the world economy. “Risks to this slow-moving global recovery are significant and tilted to the downside,” the report said.

自2014年6月以来，原油价格已暴跌60%。对于油价的影响，世行表示，该行预计从中期来说油价的暴跌会将增长率推高大约0.5%。不过，该行在对全球经济的展望中却持一种较悲观的论调。该报告表示：“这种节奏迟缓的全球复苏风险很大，很容易滑向下行区间。”

The most significant threat to the recovery listed by the Bank is the normalisation of monetary policy in the US. Last week, minutes from the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee showed the US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates from 0-0.25 per cent as soon as April. The Bank fears this could lead to a sudden tightening of financial conditions for governments and corporates in emerging markets, which have enjoyed low borrowing costs.

在该行列出的全球复苏威胁中，影响最大的是美国货币政策的正常化。上周，联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)12月份会议的会议记录显示，美联储(Fed)最早可能会在今年4月把利率从0%到0.25%的水平提升上来。该行担心，此举或将导致新兴市场政府和企业的融资环境突然趋于紧张。此前，它们一直享受着十分低廉的借贷成本。

However, the Bank does not expect a repeat of the turmoil that hit developing countries in the summer of 2013, when the Fed first revealed it might pull back from its programme of quantitative easing. “The adjustment in developing countries to financial tightening is expected to proceed more smoothly,” the report said.

不过，世行预计2013年曾冲击发展中国家的动荡局面不会再次出现。当时，美联储曾首次披露可能会退出量化宽松计划的消息。这份报告表示：“预计发展中国家能够更为平缓地应对融资状况收紧。”

Mr Basu said he did not think monetary tightening in the US would force central banks in emerging markets into sudden interest rates hikes. “Central banks in emerging markets will have to react but the reaction will not have to be any more muscular than one-and-a-half year ago,” he explained.

巴苏表示，他认为美国货币政策收紧并不会迫使新兴市场的央行突然提高利率。他解释说：“新兴市场央行将不得不应对这一局面。不过，他们的回应不一定会比一年半以前更强硬。”

Last October, the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecasts for global growth, saying the world economy would expand by 3.3 per cent in 2015 instead of 3.4 per cent. The IMF’s latest batch of economic forecasts will be released next week in an update to its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook.

去年10月，国际货币基金组织(IMF)曾降低对全球经济增长的预期，表示2015年全球经济将增长3.3%，而不是3.4%。下周，IMF将发布半年发布一次的《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)，届时该组织将公布对经济的最新预测。