中国投放储备冻猪肉平抑肉价

Pork prices in China are at record levels even after Beijing pledged to decant some of its reserves on to the market this week in an attempt to tamp down the cost of the staple protein.

即便在北京方面本周承诺将部分储备冻猪肉投放市场以平抑肉价之后，中国猪肉价格仍处于创纪录水平。猪肉是中国人摄取蛋白质的主要来源之一。

When it comes to pig meat, China leads the world in terms of both supply and demand. But the swelling ranks of the middle class have put pork on more dinner tables every year — and driven up inflation.

在猪肉供给和需求方面，中国都处于世界领先水平。但不断壮大的中产阶层使中国的猪肉消费量逐年上升，推高了通胀水平。

In March pork was singled out after prices rose 28.4 per cent year-on-year, contributing 0.64 percentage points to headline inflation of 2.3 per cent.

今年3月，猪肉价格如脱缰野马同比上涨28.4%，为2.3%的整体通胀率贡献了0.64个百分点。

China, home to the world’s biggest foreign currency reserves, also keeps a trove of other commodities at the ready, including oil, grain and pork.

中国拥有世界最大外汇储备，同时也大量储备其他大宗商品，包括石油、谷物和猪肉。

However, its stocks are seen as negligible compared with annual consumption: last year a US Department of Agriculture report described the market impact of the government’s stock purchasing programme as “insignificant”, noting it “generates more of a psychological effect than an actual market impact”.

然而，与中国的年消费量相比，这些储备可忽略不计：美国农业部去年发布的一份报告将中国政府储备收购计划对市场的影响形容为“微不足道”，并指出这项计划“在更大程度上产生的是心理效应，而非实际市场影响”。

That is cold comfort for policymakers, as the spot price for a kilo of pork in China has surpassed the 2011 peak thanks to a dearth of breeding sows and growing domestic consumption that have driven record imports of Chinese consumers’ favourite meat from foreign farms.

这对政策制定者不是什么安慰。中国猪肉现货价格已经超过了2011年的峰值，能繁母猪存栏量不足和日益增加的国内消费使得中国消费者最钟爱的猪肉的进口量达到创纪录水平。

Spot pork prices in China hit Rmb20.9/kg on Wednesday, up 4.5 per cent from the previous week’s starting level of Rmb20 and up 24.4 per cent for the year to date.

周三，中国现货猪肉价格达到了每公斤20.9元人民币，较上一周每公斤20元人民币的价格上涨了4.5%，今年迄今涨幅高达24.4%。

That is feeding through to shops and diners. The average wholesale price for a kilo of pork in China rose to Rmb26.45 for the week ended Friday, up 0.8 per cent on the week, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. Even that was short of the average price for pork belly meat in 50 Chinese cities compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics, which had hit a record Rmb32.12 as of the week of April 15.

猪肉价格上涨直接影响到了商家和食客。根据中国农业部数据，截至上周五，中国猪肉的平均批发价涨至每公斤26.45元人民币，一周上涨0.8%。这还不到中国国家统计局(NBS)汇编的中国50个城市猪五花肉的平均价格——在截至4月15日的那周创下每公斤32.12元人民币的高点。

On Tuesday the Beijing municipal government unveiled an unprecedented release of 3.05m kg of frozen pork reserve into the capital’s market over a month starting this Thursday in an attempt to lower prices it said had risen 50.6 per cent month on month, according to state news agency Xinhua.

据官方的新华社报道，北京市政府周二宣布，将在从本周四开始的一个月内向北京市场投放305万公斤储备冻猪肉，以图平抑官方所称的50.6%的环比价格涨幅。这是北京市政府首次向市场投放储备冻猪肉。

Beijing will also provide subsidies of up to Rmb9 per kg of pork to vendors. Subsidies will also be used to encourage 20 per cent more pigs to be slaughtered during the same period.

北京还将向猪肉供应商提供每公斤最高达9元的补贴。同期补贴措施还将被用于鼓励将生猪屠宰量提升20%。

The real constraint on policymakers’ ability to rein in prices is the limited breeding capacity of China’s hog farms.

政策制定者抑制肉价能力的真正制约在于中国养猪场有限的繁殖能力。

By as early as March 2015 the US Department of Agriculture was forecasting China’s swine herd would decline to 420m due to the exit of small-scale operations, a lack of government incentives, high feed prices and disease outbreaks that prompted farmers to cull their herds.

早在2015年3月，美国农业部就预测，中国的生猪存栏量将下降至4.2亿头，原因包括小规模养殖户的退出、缺乏政府激励、饲料价格高企以及疾病爆发导致农民屠宰生猪。

At last count in January, China’s total stock of sows was just shy of 38m, down from a peak of more than 50m in late 2012.

根据今年1月的最新统计，中国母猪总存栏量只有不到3800万头，远低于2012年底逾5000万头的峰值。

As a result, imports are surging, up 90 per cent in the year to end-March to a record 286,093 metric tonnes, according to figures from the General Administration of Customs — still a sliver of total pork consumption nationwide, which last year came in at more than 57bn tonnes.

其结果是进口激增。根据中国海关总署(General Administration of Customs)数据，在截至3月底的一年里，猪肉进口增幅达90%，达到创纪录的28.6093万吨，但这仍只占中国猪肉总消费量（去年达到5700多万吨）的很小一部分。