建立帝国不容易 俄罗斯将承受更多经济之痛

Russia is finding that empire building can be a painful business.

俄罗斯正发现，建立帝国是一件痛苦的事情。

The economy was already slipping before the whole Ukrainian crisis hit. Now it's being battered even more. A weakening currency has pushed up inflation, triggering yet another central bank rate hike. At the same time sanctions, sharply tightening credit conditions and capital outflows are pushing Russia into recession.

相关阅读专题：乌克兰危机在乌克兰危机全面爆发前，俄罗斯经济就已处在滑坡中，目前的情形更是雪上加霜。卢布的不断走软推升了俄罗斯通货膨胀，促使该国央行再度加息。与此同时，西方国家实施的制裁、信贷条件的大幅收紧以及资本的外流正将俄罗斯推向衰退深渊。

Standard & Poor's cut Russia's credit rating to one notch above junk on Friday morning citing concerns about capital outflows. The ruble, which had already been suffering with other emerging market currencies on the global liquidity implications about the Federal Reserve's decision to trim its asset purchase program, started losing ground heavily once Ukrainian tensions bubbled up earlier this year. Russian's involvement--its annexation of Crimea and the threat of doing the same with Ukraine's Russian-speaking east and south--triggered western sanctions. These, in turn, accelerated domestic nervousness about the economy, speeding capital flight.

标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)周五以担忧资本外流为由将俄罗斯信用评级下调至仅较垃圾级高一档的水平。美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)收缩资产购买计划的决定对全球流动性的影响已经令卢布等新兴市场货币承压，而在今年早些时候乌克兰紧张局势升级后，卢布更是开始大幅走低。俄罗斯对克里米亚的吞并以及对乌克兰其他俄罗斯族裔聚集地区的虎视眈眈已促使西方对其实施制裁。这进而又加重了俄罗斯国内民众对本国经济的不安，加剧了资本外流。

The Russian central bank responded by putting up its key interest rate to 7% from 5.5% in March, in what was originally meant to be a temporary measure, to be unwound by the summer. But on Friday it hiked again, to 7.5%, and made clear higher rates were no longer temporary.

为抑制资本流出，俄罗斯央行在今年3月份将基准利率由5.5%上调至7%。这原本应是一项临时性举措，按计划会在夏季结束前解除。但周五，该行再度加息，将利率调高至7.5%，同时明确表示加息不再是临时之举。这将成为已举步维艰的俄罗斯经济面临的一个严重问题。

That'll be a significant problem for an economy already struggling to grow. Between 2000 and the financial crisis, the Russian economy expanded an average of 7% a year. It rebounded smartly after a hefty decline in 2008, but by 2013, it only grew 1.3%. And it appears to have contracted in the first quarter, according to estimates by Capital Economics, a London-based consultancy. Russia's manufacturing purchasing managers' index pointed to contraction for the fifth successive month in April, while the composite index, which includes both services and manufacturing dropped to a 58-month low.

2000年至金融危机爆发前，俄罗斯经济年均增长率为7%。在2008年经济增速急剧放缓后曾大幅反弹，但2013年仅增长1.3%。据伦敦咨询机构凯投宏观(Capital Economics)预测，第一季度俄罗斯经济有所萎缩。4月份俄罗斯制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)连续第五个月显示行业活动收缩，与此同时，包括服务业和制造业的综合PMI降至58个月低点。

Coupled with expectations Russia will be further isolated on the international state, with the possibility of more and wider sanctions, it's no wonder capital outflows are accelerating. The Russian central bank estimates outflows of more than $50 billion during the first three months of the year, the largest quarterly total since the depth of the financial crisis.

再考虑到西方可能对俄罗斯实施更多、更广泛的制裁，从而使后者在国际上进一步被孤立，资本流出俄罗斯的速度无疑会加快。俄罗斯央行估计，今年第一季度资本流出该国的规模超过500亿美元，为金融危机高峰以来资本外流规模最大的一个季度。

This outflow has registered in Russia's asset markets--Russian equities are down some 22% in dollar terms since the start of the year.

资本外流的影响已经在俄罗斯资产市场得到体现。以美元计算，俄罗斯股市今年以来累计下跌约22%。

There's a complex, symbiotic relationship between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the country's oligarchs. He might be their patron and protector. But as they find their wealth and privileges eroded by sanctions, Mr. Putin could yet find himself thrown into the position of England's King John facing the barons at Runnymede, where the king's once unlimited powers were curtailed by the Magna Carta. Alternatively, Russia could slip further into Soviet-style repression.

俄罗斯总统普京(Vladimir Putin)与该国政治寡头之间存在复杂的共生关系。普京可能是这些政治寡头的保护者。不过，随着这些政治寡头发现自己的财富和特权被制裁举措侵蚀，普京可能面临当初英国国王约翰(John)在兰尼米德遇到的局面，约翰在当地迫于贵族的压力签署了《大宪章》(Magna Carta)，使自身曾经巨大无比的权力受到限制。但也可能出现的另一种情况是，俄罗斯进一步转向苏联时期那种高压管制模式。