现如今碎片化的英国

For a moment during the summer of 2012 it seemed that Britain had at last left behind its lingering post-imperial neuroses. Comfortable in their multi-shaded skin, a people who had once ruled nearly a third of the world had found a new role as welcoming host. The London Olympics were a celebration of a new Britishness: diverse, outward looking, mindful of tradition but eager to embrace the future. True, post-crash austerity had dented morale, but the medals collected by Jessica Ennis, Mo Farah and their fellow athletes in “Team GB” illuminated the road ahead.

2012年夏天，英国一度似乎终于将其难以摆脱的后帝国时代的神经质抛诸脑后。一个曾统治世界近三分之一疆土的民族定位了自己作为热情东道主的新角色，并对自己的多元化感到十分惬意。伦敦奥运会是一场新“英国性”(Britishness)的庆典：多元化、外向型、铭记传统却也渴望拥抱未来。的确，金融危机过后的紧缩挫伤了士气，但是“大不列颠之队”中的杰西卡•恩尼斯(Jessica Ennis)、莫•法拉(Mo Farah)等许多本土运动员所赢得的奖牌，照亮了前方的路。

The moment passed. The Britain of 2015 feels a fractious and fractured place. Pride in diversity has made way for the rise of the anti-immigrant populism of the UK Independence party. The economy is growing again — a lot faster than in the rest of Europe — but so too, it seems, is a yawning gulf between the prosperous and the disadvantaged. Below the surface, the pillars of the old English Establishment have cracked.

那一时刻已然过去。2015年的英国体会到一种困难重重而又支离破碎的境地。对多元化的自豪之情已经为英国独立党(UK Independence party)反移民的民粹主义让路。经济再次实现增长——增速甚至比欧洲其他地方快得多——但繁荣地区和弱势地区之间巨大的鸿沟似乎也在进一步加深。表象背后，英国旧体制的支柱已经出现裂缝。

In spite of last year’s vote to remain within the four-nation union, Scotland could yet decide to strike out on its own. A political and cultural chasm has opened up between London, still the global hub of 2012, and a less prosperous English hinterland. The two parties that have dominated postwar politics — — David Cameron’s Conservatives and Ed Miliband’s Labour — are retreating into regional redoubts. The United Kingdom has rarely been so disunited.

尽管去年经过投票继续留在联合王国之中，但苏格兰仍有可能决定自谋出路。在2012年仍是全球中心的伦敦和较不繁荣的英国腹地之间，政治和文化鸿沟已经拉开。主导战后政治的两个党派——戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)领导的保守党以及埃德•米利班德(Ed Miliband)领导的工党——正退守至区域阵地。联合王国很少出现过如此分崩离析的情景。

National self-confidence

民族自信心

Britain has lost its international moorings. The Iraq and Afghanistan wars took a heavy toll on national self-confidence. A swing towards introversion has been reinforced by the economic imperative to cut deficits and debt. The armed forces have returned from defeats in Basra and Helmand to the prospect of sweeping reductions in military budgets. Facing rising euroscepticism at home Mr Cameron flirts with the idea of withdrawal from the EU, much to the puzzlement of friends and allies abroad. Mr Miliband is but silent on global affairs. The British, says a report from the think-tank Chatham House, still want to hold their heads up in the world but they doubt they can make a decisive difference.

英国失去了国际支撑点。伊拉克和阿富汗战争沉重地打击了英国的民族自信心。削减赤字和降低债务的必要经济举措又加强了英国向内向型的转变。从伊拉克巴士拉(Basra)和阿富汗赫尔曼德(Helmand)的战场失利中返回的军队，又遭遇军费预算被全面削减的前景。面对国内升温的欧元怀疑主义，卡梅伦玩弄着退出欧盟(EU)的概念，让海外盟友均困惑不已。米利班德对国际事务一味保持沉默。英国著名智库查塔姆研究所(Chatham House，又名英国皇家国际事务研究所——编者注)的一份报告称，英国人仍然希望能在世界上昂首挺胸，但他们对自己是否能带来决定性的影响没有把握。

Sir John Sawers, the diplomat-turned spymaster who until recently led the Secret Intelligence Service, speaks of a nation stepping back from the world in much the way the US withdrew into itself after the Vietnam war. As Vladimir Putin’s Russia marches into Ukraine, a senior figure in the US Administration wonders aloud if the fabled “special relationship” between Washington and London is being hollowed out. There is real doubt, he says, “about the commitment and credibility of the UK as a partner in preserving international peace”.

外交官出身的间谍机构首脑、最近才卸任英国秘密情报局(SIS)局长的约翰•索厄斯爵士(Sir John Sawers)称，英国从世界舞台撤回，就像美国在越南战争中脱身而关注本国事务一样。在弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)领导的俄罗斯进军乌克兰时，美国当局一位高级人物公开质疑华盛顿和伦敦之间传说中的“特殊关系”是否只剩下空壳。他称，“英国在维护国际和平中作为伙伴国的承诺和信誉”确实值得怀疑。

In other circumstances, the general election set for May 7 might have galvanised the nation in a vigorous debate not just about the domestic economy and the shape of government but also about how best to adjust to a tougher, more precarious world.

在其他环境下，定于5月7日举行的英国大选可能已经在全国掀起了一场轰轰烈烈的讨论，不仅是关于国内经济和政府构成，还关于如何最好地适应一个更严峻、更不稳定的世界。

Elections should promise competing visions, alternative futures. Instead the campaigns thus far have exposed a profound disconnect between an outdated politics and the concerns and aspirations of the voters. Society and politics have fallen out of step. Vernon Bogdanor, professor of government at London’s Kings College who once tutored the young Mr Cameron at Oxford, talks of “a growing divergence between the constitutional and political forms of an earlier age and the social and economic realities of today”.

选举应该是各路人马提出竞争性的发展愿景和不同的未来选择。然而，目前为止竞选活动已经暴露出过时的政治主张与选民的关切和期待之间的严重脱节。社会和政治的步调不一致。卡梅伦年轻时在牛津大学(Oxford)的导师——伦敦大学国王学院(King's College London)政府学教授韦农•波格丹诺(Vernon Bogdanor)，就指出了“早期宪法和政治形态与当今社会和经济现实之间日益扩大的差异”。

Labour has lost the recruits once provided by the smokestack industries and a Conservative membership card no longer bestows social cachet on the upwardly mobile middle classes.

工党已经失去了曾由传统工业输送的成员，保守党成员的身份牌也不再能给有望向社会上层流动的中产阶层赋予社会声望。

Stranded by modernity

无法适应现代世界

This year marks the 800th anniversary of Magna Carta, the bargain struck between England’s King John and the medieval barons that is often seen as the foundation stone of British democracy. In moments of hubris, the English will tell you that the rule of law was the charter’s gift not just to Shakespeare’s Sceptered Isle but to the democratic world. The commemorative events were supposed to mark the constancy and stability of the habits and institutions of the nation’s unwritten constitution.

今年是《大宪章》(Magna Carta)问世800周年，这份英王约翰与中世纪贵族之间的妥协文件常被视为英国民主的基石。在自大的时候，英国人会告诉你，法治不仅是《大宪章》为莎士比亚笔下的“权杖之岛”(Sceptered Isle)带来的灵感，也是《大宪章》对民主世界的馈赠。纪念活动本应突出这个国家不成文宪法中的惯例与制度的恒定性和稳定性。

Yet the contemporary picture is one of a political system and set of constitutional rules that have been left stranded by modernity. Britain has outgrown its politics. For most of the postwar era the two-party (sometimes a two-and-a-half party) system delivered stable, single-party government. When Mr Cameron was obliged to go into formal coalition with Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats after the 2010 election, it was seen as a temporary excursion into European-style, multi-party politics. The familiar, bipolar system would soon enough reassert itself. The prospect now, however, is for another inconclusive election outcome and, further ahead, for the permanent politics of minority administrations or coalitions.

然而，当代的景象却是：英国的政治体制和宪法规则无法适应现代世界。英国的政治已经落后于这个国家。在二战后的多数时间内，两党制（有时是两党半制）缔造了稳定的一党揽政政府。2010年大选后，当卡梅伦不得不与尼克•克雷格(Nick Clegg)领导的自由民主党(Liberal Democrats)组建联合政府时，这被视为对欧洲式多党政治的临时借鉴，而英国人所熟悉的两极政治体制会很快回归。然而，如今看来，未来会再次出现非决定性的选举结果，说得再远一些，少数党政府或联合政府将成为长久的政治景象。

The temptation is to treat this fragmentation — the Scottish Nationalist party and the Greens have joined Ukip in challenging the traditional order — as a fleeting phenomenon. Old political hands at Westminster talk about a natural reaction to hard economic times and to a peculiarly lacklustre generation of political leaders.

人们很容易把这种支离破碎——苏格兰国民党(Scottish Nationalist Party)和绿党(Greens)已经同英国独立党一道挑战传统秩序——当作一种短暂现象。威斯敏斯特的政坛老手认为，面对经济困难时期以及格外平庸无能的一代政治领导人，这种支离破碎是自然反应。

They have half a point. Living standards have fallen. Mr Cameron is a prime minister aiming for a place in history’s footnotes. Mr Miliband yearns for a mythical age when politicians of the left had no need to compromise with grubby capitalism. Their platforms lack ambition and optimism. For its part, Mr Clegg’s party is consumed by a fight for survival. The junior partners in coalitions rarely fare well.

他们说对了一半。生活水平确实下降了。卡梅伦是一位想要名垂青史的首相。米利班德渴望的是一个左翼政客不必再向肮脏的资本主义妥协的神话时代。他们的政治纲领均缺少雄心壮志和乐观精神。而克雷格所领导的自由民主党为生存斗争而精疲力尽。联合政府中较弱势的一方很少有过得好的。

Alongside the cyclical trends, however, there are deeper currents at work. The two-party system is falling victim to social and economic upheaval. As Mr Bogdanor writes in an essay for the UK Constitution Society, Britain is in transition from “the société bloquée of the 1950s, dominated by large socio-economic blocs based on occupation and class, to a more socially and geographically fragmented society”.

然而，除了周期性趋势的影响外，还有更深层次的趋势在起作用。两党制正沦为社会和经济动荡的牺牲品。正如波格丹诺在为英国宪法学会(UK Constitution Society)所写的一篇论文中所称，英国正在从“20世纪50年代基于职业和阶级的大型社会经济集团所主导的封闭社会，向在社会和地理层面更为碎片化的社会”转变。

In 1951 the House of Commons counted six MPs who stood outside the two main parties. The number now is 85. Class-based ties have weakened and new lines have been drawn between Scotland and England, between young and old, and between north and south.

1951年，英国下议院只有6名议员不属于两大政党。而现在不属于两大党的下议院议员达到了85名。基于阶层的联系已经弱化，在苏格兰和英格兰、年轻人和老年人、北部和南部之间，新的界线业已形成。

There was a time when a large slice of the population was “born” Tory or Labour. The Hansard Society, which carries out a regular audit of political engagement, says only 30 per cent of voters will now admit a firm party allegiance. Some 67 per cent cent say that the politicians “don’t understand the daily lives of people like us”.

有一段时间，英国的很大一部分人口“生来”就属于保守党或者工党。定期评审政治参与情况的英国议会议事录学会(Hansard Society)表示，目前只有30%的选民承认自己坚定地支持某个政党。67%的选民表示政界人士“不了解我们这种人的日常生活”。

The Conservatives are now a party of the prosperous south. Tory MPs are nowhere to be found in Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham or Newcastle. Outside London — the capital defies most of the trends elsewhere — Labour struggles to win more than a handful of seats in England’s southern regions. The Conservatives have struggled in Scotland for over a generation. Now, having lost September’s referendum on independence, the nationalists threaten to trounce Labour in the contest for seats at Westminster.

保守党现在成为了繁荣的南部地区的政党。在曼彻斯特、利兹、伯明翰或者纽卡斯尔，保守党议员无处可寻。伦敦是一个其他地方的大多数趋势无法适用的地方，在伦敦以外的英格兰南部地区，工党努力争取获得不至于少得可怜的席位。超过25年以来，保守党一直在努力争取苏格兰地区的席位。眼下，在去年9月的独立公投中落败的民族主义者正威胁要在英国议会的席位争夺战中彻底打败工党。

Not so long ago the winning party at a general election would command the support of more than 40 per cent of the electorate. Messrs Cameron and Miliband, each now fighting to lose less badly than the other, struggle to reach much above 30 per cent.

不久以前，大选的获胜党还能得到超过40%选民的支持。而卡梅伦和米利班德如今正在努力不比对方输得更惨，争取让支持率超过30%。

Loss of authority

权威的丧失

The challenge is not just to the familiar hierarchy at Westminster. Henry Fairlie, a journalist who plied his trade during the 1950s, coined the phrase “The Establishment” to describe the nexus of traditions, institutions and powerful individuals at the apex of British society. Power still belonged to the landed, the Treasury and the Foreign Office, the bankers and brokers of City of London, the BBC and the press barons, the bishops and judges. Decisions were taken in the oak-panelled drawing rooms of the gentlemen’s clubs in St James’s.

面临挑战的不仅是人们熟悉的英国议会。在上世纪50年代担任记者的亨利•费尔利(Henry Fairlie)发明了“建制”(The Establishment)这个词，来描述由传统、制度和处于英国社会顶点、权势显赫的人物们组成的关系网。过去，权力属于有大量土地的人、英国财政部和外交部、伦敦金融城(City of London)的银行家和经纪人、英国广播公司(BBC)和媒体巨头、以及主教和法官。决策发生在圣詹姆斯区(St James’s)绅士俱乐部里装饰着橡木饰板的客厅。

There are still corners where the ancien regime thrives. For all the well-publicised troubles of some of her immediate family, the steadying figure of Queen Elizabeth has kept the affection of her people and sustained the monarchy as the guardian of national unity. To adapt the 19th century essayist Walter Bagehot, she has not allowed the daylight to tarnish the magic.

眼下，旧体制在某些地方依然兴盛。尽管伊丽莎白二世(Queen Elizabeth)的一些直系亲属的麻烦遭到广泛报道，女王本人稳定人心的形象仍让她得到了子民的爱戴，使君主制继续成为国家统一的守护者。套用19世纪评论家白哲特(Walter Bagehot)的话，她没有让女王的魔力在日光下失色。

There are other pockets of privilege: the aides charged with writing the Tory election manifesto are almost all, like Mr Cameron, alumni of Eton, one of Britain’s expensive public schools. Yet, as Britain’s power has waned so too has the authority of the Establishment networks. Mr Cameron’s inner circle of well-heeled chums grates with much of the electorate. One of his own MPs casts him a “Tory posh boy” out of touch with the kitchen table preoccupations of the nation. The City has fallen into disgrace as a consequence of the financial crash and a succession of money-laundering and mis-selling scandals. Only this month HSBC has been found colluding in tax evasion. The British Social Attitudes Survey records that in 1983 some 90 per cent of voters thought banks were well-run institutions. By 2012 the level of trust had fallen to 19 per cent.

还有其他一些特权的存在：负责撰写保守党竞选宣言的助手几乎都和卡梅伦一样，是英国贵族公学伊顿(Eton)的毕业生。然而，随着英国的力量渐渐衰退，“建制”网络的权威也日趋式微。卡梅伦富有的心腹密友内围集团与大多数选民格格不入。他自己政党的一位议员把他叫做“托利党公子哥”，称他对国民们在餐桌上关心的事情毫不知情。金融危机和一系列洗钱和不当销售丑闻让伦敦金融城蒙羞。就在本月，汇丰(HSBC)被曝光帮助客户逃税。英国社会态度调查(British Social Attitudes Survey)的记录表明，在1983年，约有90%的选民相信银行是管理良好的机构。到2012年，对银行的信任比例已经下跌至19%。

As for parliament, the British have always shown a healthy scepticism towards politicians but this has curdled into deep cynicism in the wake of a series of expenses scandals. This week two former foreign secretaries, Jack Straw and Sir Malcolm Rifkind, were caught up in the furore about MPs’ business interests. Sir Malcolm said he would stand down at the election.

至于议会，英国人一向对政治人士表现出一种良性的怀疑，但在一系列金钱丑闻后，这种怀疑已经变成了深深的不信任。本周，两名前外交大臣——杰克•斯特劳(Jack Straw)和马尔科姆•里夫金德爵士(Sir Malcolm Rifkind)因利用议员身份谋取商业利益而引起大众的愤怒。里夫金德表示他将在选举前辞职。

In the Church of England, bishops are sermonising to dwindling flocks. The press — the 18th century constitutionalist Edmund Burke called it the fourth estate — has been badly tarnished by the phone-tapping revelations. After myriad economic crises, the Treasury more closely resembles a spluttering East German Trabant than the Rolls-Royce of folklore. And Foreign Office diplomats, once at the very top of the Whitehall establishment and powerful emissaries of Britain’s international influence, have been told by their political masters to reinvent themselves as travelling salespeople for Britain plc.

至于英国国教，聆听主教们布道的人群正在逐渐减少。被18世纪的宪政主义者埃德蒙•伯克(Edmund Burke)称为“第四等级”(fourth estate)的新闻界也因为电话窃听丑闻蒙上了污名。数次经济危机以后，英国财政部更像是一辆嘎嘎作响的东德特拉贝特车(Trabant)，而不是一辆闪耀着传统荣光的劳斯莱斯(Rolls-Royce)。英国外交部的外交官们曾一度处于伦敦政府系统的顶点，是展现英国国际影响力的强大使者。而现在他们的政治主人告诉他们，要把自己改造成英国企业的流动推销员。

Prisoner of the past

历史的囚徒

Many will bid a fond goodbye to the egregious bastions of self-perpetuating privilege. The age of unthinking deference has passed. Yet the more general corrosion of trust in the nation’s politicians and institutions has had unhappier consequences. As elsewhere in Europe, it leaves a vacuum of legitimacy, one being filled by the “antis”: the anti-elite, the anti-European, the anti-immigrant and the anti-capitalist. The populists have caught the temper of the times in offering disenchanted voters enemies rather than answers. Messrs Cameron and Miliband are chasing them to right and left.

许多人将依依不舍地告别永续特权最坚固的那些堡垒。不经思考就服从的年代已经过去。然而，人们在更大范围上渐渐丧失对政治人士和体制的信任，引起了更不幸的结果。就像欧洲其他地方一样，这催生了一种合法性真空，填补这种真空的正是那些“反对”阵营：反精英、反欧洲、反移民和反资本主义。民粹主义者抓住了这个时代的普遍情绪，向失望的选民提供了敌人，而非答案。卡梅伦和米利班德则驱使选民走向左或者右。

The rise of nationalism in Scotland and Ukip’s success in promoting English identity politics speak to a union of nations that is losing the glue of Britishness. Some, such as the historian Linda Colley, suggest that this was always going to be so. Britain, after all, is an invented state, forged since the 18th century through imperial adventures, shared protestantism and common enemies. Mr Bogdanor’s answer is a new constitutional settlement — a redistribution of power between, and within, the four nations of the union to match the social, economic and cultural realities of the times.

苏格兰民族主义的兴起和英国独立党在推动英国身份认同政治方面的成功，呼应了这个正在失去“英国性”维系的民族国家联盟。一些人，比如历史学家琳达•科利(Linda Colley)，表示事情总是会变成这样。毕竟，英国是一个人为构造的国家，是在18世纪以后，通过帝国探险、共同信奉的新教主义和共同的敌人缔结而成的国家。波格丹诺提出的答案是达成一种新的宪制安排——重新在这个由4个民族国家组成的联盟之中，以及在各民族国家之间分配权力，以适应当代的社会、经济和文化现实。

He is right. Britain needs a new way of governing itself and a new story — a binding narrative that affords due respect to the past but is no longer imprisoned by it. London 2012 pointed the way.

他是正确的。英国需要一种新的治理方式，一种新的表述——对过去给予恰当的尊崇、但不受制于过去的约束性表述。2012年伦敦奥运会为我们指明了方向。