美国对欧洲绥靖主义渐失耐心

Appeasement is an age-old tactic of diplomacy. It can be a defensible one, but not as a frame of mind for an entire continent. Yet no word captures the general mood of Europe better than appeasement.

绥靖政策是一种古老的外交策略。它可以是防御性的，但不能成为整块大陆的思维框架。然而，没有什么词比绥靖更能体现欧洲当前的普遍心态。

Europeans, it has been said, cherish freedom but do not want to sacrifice anything for it. Only about half a dozen of Nato’s 28 members spend 2 per cent of output on defence, the alliance’s guideline level. When Vladimir Putin’s Russia undermined the strategic state of Ukraine, they stood and watched.

据说，欧洲人珍视自由，但却不愿为自由做出任何牺牲。北约(NATO) 28个成员国中仅有6个左右的国家国防开支占到GDP的2%——该组织的指导水平。当弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)领导下的俄罗斯破坏乌克兰的战略地位时，他们只是袖手旁观。

This is of a piece with the EU’s inability to deal with its own economic difficulties. Whatever they may claim, each member follows its own national interest without asking what is best for Europe. Decades into the project, there is still no chill-up-your-spine loyalty to Europe. There is simply no larger purpose and nothing to fight for, other than providing for the good life under welfare state conditions.

这与欧盟无力应对自身的经济困难有关。无论主张什么，每个成员国只追求自己的国家利益，而不考虑怎样做最有利于欧洲。欧洲一体化历经几十年，但仍没有形成对欧洲发自内心的忠诚。除了提供福利国家条件下的美好生活之外，更大的、值得为之而战的目标已不存在。

Europe has been reduced over the decades to a regulatory regime. Yet a rules-based order, however much it protects the rights of the individual, is not a replacement for conviction: rather, it must evolve out of a healthy and determined national purpose. A supranational purpose might exists in Brussels but not on the European street.

过去几十年，欧洲已降格为一个管理式政权。不过，基于规则的秩序——即使它能在很大程度上保护个人权利——并非信念的替代品：相反，信念必须脱胎于明智而坚定的国家目标。超国家的目标可能会存在于布鲁塞尔，但不存在于欧洲的街头巷尾。

Because of their anaemic sense of national purpose, European elites have in several countries ceded measurable ground to the far right or the far left, resulting in a lumpen and populist form of nationalism. Elites are often stranded in the middle, seeking ways to appease both Mr Putin and their own, homegrown extremists. Lumpen nationalism, defeatism and a latent anti-Semitism all flow together.

由于缺乏国家目标的意识，多个国家的欧洲精英已向极右或极左做出了明显的让步，导致民族主义出现底层民粹主义形式。精英们常常被困其中，试图同时安抚普京和本国的极端分子。底层民族主义、失败主义和潜在的反犹太主义浪潮同时在涌动。

Europe’s elites are post-historical. Living in history means living in a world of constant threat where there is no nightwatchman to keep the peace among nations, so nations must keep the peace themselves by maintaining a balance of power. But for 70 years Europe has relied on the US to do exactly that: guarantee its security, so that Europe can spend relatively little on defence and relatively much on providing for the good life. Seventy years is much longer than the distance between the end of the Napoleonic Wars and the outbreak of the Franco-Prussian war; or between the end of that conflict and the outbreak of the first world war.

欧洲的精英们是“后历史”的。生活在历史中意味着生活在一个威胁不断的世界里——在这个世界里，没有守夜人保持各国之间的和平，因此各国必须自己通过保持实力均衡来维护和平。但70年来，欧洲一直依赖美国来维护和平，保证其安全，好让欧洲投入到防务上的支出可以相对较少，投入到美好生活上的支出相对较多。从拿破仑战争结束到普法战争爆发，或者从普法战争结束到一战爆发，都远远不到70年。

This American security umbrella will not stay up for ever. Barack Obama’s alleged lack of resolve in dealing with Mr Putin may say less about the US president’s own foreign policy than about a gradual shift in US opinion. Why should America defend a continent that will not defend itself?

美国提供的这种安全伞将不会永远存在。巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)在与普京打交道时的所谓缺乏决断，与其说反映了他自己的外交政策，还不如说反映了美国观念的逐步转变。美国为什么应该为一个不自我捍卫的大陆提供防务？

The last of America’s second world war veterans will soon be dead. The European-oriented elites that have influenced foreign and defence policy in Washington are gradually being replaced by bright young men and women — many of them the offspring of immigrants from Asia and Latin America — who bring with them different family histories and emotional priorities. This coincides with the security challenges and opportunities that America encounters outside Europe, particularly in Asia, where American allies are willing to maintain robust, deployable militaries.

美国最后的二战老兵将会很快去世。在华盛顿影响外交和防务政策的以欧洲为导向的精英们，现在逐渐被才华横溢的年轻人所取代，其中许多人是亚洲和拉美移民的后代，他们带来了不同的家族历史和情感倾向。与此同时，美国在欧洲以外遇到了安全方面的挑战和机遇，尤其是在亚洲，那里的美国盟友愿意保持强大、部署性强的军队。

Or take Israel, a country with which the American public has for more than half a century been stubbornly sympathetic, whatever its often-misguided politicians do to inconvenience US policy. This is (among other things) the result of Israel’s stiff national resolve and gutsy, demonstrated willingness to defend itself.

以以色列为例。美国公众在半个多世纪的时间里一直执着地对以色列抱以同情，无论其常常犯糊涂的政客们做什么来妨碍美国的政策。这是因为以色列有坚决的国家意志，并展现出捍卫自己的勇敢意愿（当然还有其他因素）。

Gutsy is not a word one would use to describe Europe’s political class. And unless that changes, no US president will be as committed to Europe as his predecessors were during the cold war.

人们不会用勇敢描述欧洲的政治阶层。除非这种情况有所改变，否则哪个美国总统都不会像其冷战期间的前任那样致力于欧洲防务。

The writer is a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security

本文作者是新美国安全中心(Center for a New American Security)的高级研究员