美国为何对中国造岛束手无策

China’s efforts to dredge new land on remote coral atolls in the South China Sea have left the US struggling to come up with a response.

中国在南中国海偏远的环珊瑚礁上填海造岛，这让美国很难做出回应。

For Washington, Chinese land-building has helped make allies of former adversaries now fearful of military domination by an assertive China. The latest example was the trip to Vietnam last week by Ashton Carter, US defence secretary, who pledged US patrol craft to the Vietnamese navy.

对华盛顿来说，中国填海造岛有助于让之前是对手的国家成为美国的盟友，这些国家担心一个自信的中国将会占据军事上的主导地位。最新的例子是美国国防部长阿什顿•卡特(Ashton Carter)上周访问越南，承诺将帮助越南海军购买美国的巡逻艇。

But there is a limit to how far countries in the region are willing to present a united front to China, which has reclaimed 2,000 acres of land in the past 18 months, far outstripping all other claimants combined, according to Mr Carter. The Obama administration is also unsure about how strongly it should push back against what US officials see as a long-term Chinese plan to control the region’s waters.

但亚太国家并不热衷于联合对付中国——据卡特说，中国在过去18个月里的填海造岛面积达到2000英亩，远远超过了其他所有国家填海造岛面积的总和。奥巴马政府也不确定应该在多大程度上阻挠美国官员所认为的中国控制该地区海域的长期计划。

China claims 90 per cent of the waters of the South China Sea, a position contested by neighbours including Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines. But the Obama administration is increasingly finding itself in the uncomfortable position of taking the lead in efforts to confront Beijing, while stumbling in diplomatic efforts to establish consensus in Southeast Asia on what to do.

中国宣称对南中国海90%的海域拥有主权，包括越南、马来西亚和菲律宾在内的邻国对此提出异议。但奥巴马政府日益发现，自己正处于挑头对抗中国的尴尬处境，同时让东南亚采取一致行动的外交努力未能取得进展。

“The frustration for the US is that the Southeast Asian countries, with the possible exception of the Philippines, do not want to make a choice between China, their main trading partner, and the US, main provider of security in the region,” says Euan Graham of the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney.

悉尼智库罗维国际政策学院(Lowy Institute for International Policy)的尤安•格雷厄姆(Euan Graham)表示：“美国的挫折在于，东南亚国家（可能除了菲律宾）不想在中国和美国之间做出选择，这两个国家一个是它们的主要贸易伙伴国，另一个则是该地区主要的安全保护伞。”

The second problem is that each of these countries has occupied its own islands, and some are doing their own land reclamation. At the Shangri-La security summit last month, Mr Carter called on all parties to stop land reclamation. Last year a similar appeal by the US went unheeded by all but the Philippines, and subsequently collapsed.

第二个问题在于，这些国家本身全都在南中国海占有岛屿，一些国家还在填海造岛。在上月举行的香格里拉安全峰会期间，卡特呼吁所有各方停止填海造岛。去年美国做出了类似的呼吁，但除了菲律宾以外其他国家全都置之不理，最终不了了之。

Diplomatic efforts include a common “code of conduct” among the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations — four of which have claims in the South China Sea — which would put a commitment not to reclaim land in legally-binding language and place additional diplomatic pressure on China.

外交方面的努力包括，东盟(Asean)成员国（其中4个国家宣称在南中国海拥有主权）签署共同“行为准则”，该准则将让各国以具有法律约束力的语言承诺不填海造岛，而且对中国施加额外的外交压力。

Asean is split between those countries that do not have claims, which are more China-friendly, and those that do. Meanwhile, China is seeking to deal separately with each claimant.

东盟内部也有分歧，一些国家没有提出主权主张，与中国关系较为友好，而另一些国家则提出了主权主张。与此同时，中国正寻求与每一个提出主权主张的国家逐一谈判。

“In crude terms some might say they are doing divide and rule,” says Ong Keng Yong, former Asean secretary-general and now deputy chairman of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

前东盟秘书长、如今担任新加坡南洋理工大学拉惹勒南国际问题研究院(S Rajaratnam School of International Studies)副主席的王景荣(Ong Keng Yong)表示：“粗略来说，一些人可能会说，他们正在各个击破。”

Meanwhile, as China builds up its islands, others such as Vietnam and the Philippines continue their own island-building efforts. The Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei each claim some of the Spratlys, while China, Taiwan and Vietnam claim the whole chain. Vietnam, for example, occupies many more islands than China does.

与此同时，随着中国填海造岛，越南和菲律宾等其他国家也继续它们自己的填海造岛。菲律宾、马来西亚和文莱全都宣称对南沙群岛的某些岛屿拥有主权，同时中国大陆、台湾和越南宣称对整个南沙群岛拥有主权。例如，越南占据的岛屿比中国还多。

However, China’s dredging efforts, which appear to be aimed at creating military facilities including a 3km runway capable of handling fighter jets, dwarfs the others. US analysts fear the next step is for China to claim airspace over the South China Sea by declaring an air defence identification zone once the runway is finished.

然而，中国的填海造岛行动让其他国家相形见绌——中国似乎打算建设包括一个可供战斗机起降的3公里跑道在内的军事设施。美国分析人士担心，一旦建成跑道，中国下一步将会划设一个防空识别区，从而对南中国海领空主张主权。

Faced with such a prospect and indecision among its friends, US officials admit they need to do more to challenge Chinese muscle-flexing but there is no consensus yet within the Obama administration about how to respond.

由于面临这样的前景，加上美国盟友犹豫不决，美国官员承认他们需要采取更多举措来对抗中国的力量展示，但迄今奥巴马政府没有就如何回应达成共识。

Washington recently raised the temperature in the South China Sea by inviting a CNN crew on board a surveillance flight over islands claimed by China, and broadcasting radio challenges by Chinese military on the ground.

华盛顿最近邀请美国有线新闻网(CNN)工作人员随美军侦察机赴中方宣称拥有主权的岛屿侦察，并播放了岛上中国军方通过无线电发出的警告，这让南中国海紧张局势升温。

The administration is also considering conducting “freedom of navigation” exercises where it would send warships into the waters around the reclaimed Chinese land features. The objective would be not to contest the specific territorial claims, about which the US says it remains neutral. Instead, the US would be showing that it does not recognise the sandbanks as islands with their own territorial waters. Under international law, nations control 12 nautical miles around islands and coasts.

奥巴马政府也在考虑实施“航行自由”行动，派遣军舰进入中国宣称拥有主权的岛屿附近海域。其目的并不是对具体的领土主张提出异议——关于这一点，美国表示将依然保持中立。相反，美国将以此表明，它不会承认这些礁石是各国的领海岛屿。按照国际法，海岸线12海里以内属于各国的领海。

However, the concern within the administration is that an overly aggressive US response could escalate tensions, alienate allies and partners in the region or even lead to an altercation with Chinese naval vessels. Bonnie Glaser, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, says while freedom of navigation patrols do not hinge on “buy in” from regional powers, broader diplomatic efforts do.

然而，奥巴马政府的担忧在于，美国过于激进可能加剧紧张局势，疏远该地区的盟友和合作伙伴，甚至与中国海军舰船发生冲突。华盛顿国际战略研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的葛莱仪(Bonnie Glaser)表示，尽管航行自由巡逻并不取决于地区主要国家的“入伙”，但更为宏大的外交努力却需要。

“It’s important for the US to have support for its actions in the South China Sea, if not from all Asean members then from a key core group,” she says. “In the absence of adequate consultations, diplomatic initiatives fail.”

她说道：“重要的是，美国在南中国海的行动要获得支持，即便不是所有东盟成员国的支持，那也得是核心国家的支持。如果不进行充分的协商，外交动议将会失败。”

But such co-operation remains a distant goal, says Mr Graham. “Southeast Asia for the US is something of a fickle audience because no one wants to get too far out in front — everyone has a different idea of the sweet spot they’d like to occupy between the US and China.”

但格雷厄姆表示，达成此类合作目标依然遥遥无期。“对美国来说，东南亚是反复无常的观众，因为没有人希望冲得太靠前——对于自己应该在中美之间占据什么位置才是最好的，各方有不同看法”。