为印尼敲响恐怖主义警钟 Indonesia on alert over lure of Isis

Abu Bakar Ba’asyir, Indonesia's best-known Islamist cleric, pledged allegiance to Isis from his jail cell last year

上图说明：去年，印尼最知名的伊斯兰教士阿布巴卡尔巴希尔在狱中宣誓效忠ISIS

A large gang of men, dressed in camouflage and wielding heavy machine guns, smile at the camera. One waves a black flag. Another chants, “let us begin” — in Indonesian.

一大群身穿迷彩服、手拿重型武器的男人在摄像机前微笑。其中一人挥舞着一面黑色旗帜，另一人用印尼语高唱“让我们开始吧”。

The footage that emerged this week of militants thought to be fighting in Syria for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, also known as Isis, has shocked Southeast Asian security analysts, who have long played down fears of Indonesians being drawn to join the militant group in its self-declared caliphate.

近日出现的这段影像震惊了东南亚安全分析人士。据信，画面中的这些武装分子准备赴叙利亚为“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)作战。长期以来，分析人士一直淡化一种担忧，即印尼人会被拉入这个自封的哈里发国的武装组织。

“If this is one unit, in one city … then it may be higher than I thought,” says Sidney Jones, director of the Jakarta-based Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict. “It wouldn’t take more than two or three of them to come back and get a little unit into shape to do something more dangerous than we have had in the past 10 years.”

“如果一个城市一个小组织的话……那么危险可能比我过去想象的要高，”雅加达冲突政策分析研究所(Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict)主任西德尼琼斯(Sidney Jones)表示，“只需要两三个人回来，就可以建立一个小组织，做出一些比我们在过去10年经历的还要危险的事情。”

The video comes just as Indonesia was already beginning to question the extent to which militant ideology had spread in the country.

这段视频出现之时，印尼已开始质疑激进理念在该国的蔓延程度。

Last week a dossier from the Australian Federal Police was leaked to the media alleging that two former commercial pilots had been posting pro-Isis material on social media and interacting with Indonesian fighters thought to have fled to the Middle East. Meanwhile, police are investigating an explosion last week in one of Jakarta’s major shopping malls, which they suspect was linked to Isis.

近日，澳大利亚联邦警察局(Australian Federal Police)的一份材料被泄露给媒体，文件称，两位前商业飞行员在社交媒体上发布支持ISIS的资料，并与据信已逃往中东的印尼武装分子互动。同时，印尼警方正在调查上上周发生在雅加达一大型购物中心的爆炸案，警方怀疑此事与ISIS有关。

While President Joko Widodo is preoccupied with slowing economic growth and political infighting, analysts say the extremist threat in the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation has been growing rapidly in the past year, since the country’s best known radical cleric, Abu Bakar Ba’asyir, swore allegiance to Isis from a high-security prison on Nusa Kambangan island, south of Java.

印尼总统佐科维多多(Joko Widodo)正忙于应对经济增速放缓以及政治内斗的问题，分析人士表示，过去一年，自印尼最知名的激进传教士阿布巴卡尔巴希尔(Abu Bakar Ba’asyir，见上图)在位于爪哇南部努沙岛戒备森严的监狱发誓效忠ISIS以来，在这个全球最大的穆斯林占多数的国家，极端主义威胁迅速加大。

The previous government responded to rising support for Isis by formally banning the group and increasing monitoring of those travelling to Turkey and other countries that form a gateway to the Syrian conflict

面对国内对ISIS的支持升温，上届政府的回应是，正式禁止ISIS，同时加大对去往土耳其和其他国家的人员的监控，这些国家是参与叙利亚冲突的入口。

But Mr Widodo, a former small-town mayor with scant experience in security and foreign policy, has done little to crack down further.

但前小城市市长维多多缺乏安全和外交政策方面的经验，他几乎没有采取措施展开进一步打击。

Ms Jones estimates there are now more than 300 Indonesians fighting with Isis in the Middle East, raising concerns that returning jihadis could revive extremist cells back home — just as veterans of the Afghan war in the 1980s formed the al-Qaeda-sponsored Jemaah Islamiyah network behind a string of high-profile terrorist attacks across the region more than a decade ago.

琼斯估计，现在有超过300名印尼人在中东与ISIS共同作战，这让外界担心，这些圣战者们回国后可能会令本国的极端主义组织复活，就像10多年前，参加过上世纪80年代阿富汗战争的老兵，组成得到基地组织(al-Qaeda)支持的伊斯兰祈祷团(Jemaah Islamiyah)，在该地区发动了一系列引人注目的恐怖主义袭击。

Achmad Sukarsono, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, warns against underestimating the threat “because if a few Afghan veterans can create JI, what happens if 500 or more Indonesians come back from the Middle East theatre and feel they need to do something in Indonesia?”

欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)分析师艾哈迈德苏卡索诺(Achmad Sukarsono)警告不要低估这种威胁，“因为如果几个阿富汗老兵可以组成伊斯兰祈祷团，那么500名或更多从中东战场回国的印尼人，要是认为他们有必要在印尼做些事情，会发生什么？”

Analysts say Mr Widodo is too focused on other matters.

分析人士表示，维多多过于关注其他事务。

“The whole Islamic issue doesn’t figure that high on his priority list,” says Michael Buehler, a lecturer at London’s School of Oriental and African Studies. “He has so many problems just basically surviving politically.”

“整个伊斯兰问题没有列在他的优先任务清单的前列，”伦敦大学亚非学院(School of Oriental and African Studies)讲师迈克尔比勒(Michael Buehler)表示，“他刚刚勉强在政治上存活下来，面临很多问题。”

Stronger laws are required to enforce Indonesia’s ban on Isis, according to the Institute for Policy Analysis and Conflict, as travelling overseas for military training is not illegal in Indonesia, while police struggle to curb the hate speech of radical preachers in a country where religious groups still wield considerable power.

冲突政策分析研究所称，印尼必须制定更强硬法律来执行印尼对ISIS的禁令，因为在印尼，赴海外参加军事培训并不非法，同时在这个宗教组织仍有着巨大影响力的国家，警方很难限制激进传教士的仇恨演讲。

In particular, the think-tank highlights the need for security forces to identify radical mosques, and for simple intervention in prisons, where jihadi inmates have held well publicised oath-taking ceremonies and regularly use mobile phones.

该智库尤其强调，必须让安全部门查出激进的清真寺，并对监狱进行彻底干预，现在圣战分子囚犯在监狱里的宣誓仪式被大肆宣传，他们还经常在狱中使用手机。

“There is an information system that goes through the prisons,” explains Ms Jones. “People who want to go to Syria can go and visit someone in a maximum-security prison, get the contacts for one of his friends on the outside … and find a way of getting there.”

“整个监狱上下有一个信息体系，”琼斯解释称，“想去叙利亚的人可以去看望某个在安全级别最高的监狱中囚禁的人，取得他在监狱外面的一位朋友的联系方式……然后设法抵达那里。”

Yet recent inaction may come down to widespread belief that the threat of terrorism in Indonesia has subsided in the past 15 years, with no major incident since nine people were killed in suicide bombings at major hotels in Jakarta six years ago.

然而政府最近的不作为可能要归因于人们普遍认为，过去15年，印尼的恐怖主义威胁已消退，自6年前雅加达大型酒店内的自杀式爆炸导致9人死亡以来，该国没有出现重大事件。

Indonesia’s militant groups had been left splintered since the country’s US-funded counter-terrorism police cracked down on Jemaah Islamiyah after more than 200 people were killed in the bombing of a Bali nightclub in 2002. And the country ranked just 31st of 124 countries in the Global Terrorism Index published by the Institute of Economics and Peace last year, just below the US and above Israel.

2002年，有200多人在巴厘岛一夜总会爆炸案中丧生，之后由美国资助的印尼反恐警察部队对伊斯兰祈祷团进行了打击。自那以来，印尼的激进组织一直处于四分五裂的状态。去年，在经济与和平研究所(Institute of Economics and Peace)公布的全球恐怖主义指数(Global Terrorism Index)排行榜上，印尼在124个国家中名列第31位，排在美国之后，以色列之前。

Though returning jihadis could revive extremist cells in the country, Azyumardi Azra, a leading moderate thinker, claims Indonesian Muslims are largely tolerant and find the Wahhabi fundamentalism exported from the Middle East “too dry, too pure, too primitive, too Spartan”.

著名温和派思想家艾祖玛迪阿兹拉教授(Prof Azyumardi Azra)声称，尽管回国的圣战分子可能会让该国的极端主义组织复活，但印尼的穆斯林基本上是宽容的，他们认为从中东输出的瓦哈比(Wahhabi)原教旨主义“太枯燥、太纯粹、太原始而且太清苦”。

“We are worried,” he says. “But we are not scared.”

“我们很担心，”他表示，“但我们不害怕。”

However, Eurasia Group’s Mr Sukarno says that to the moderate nature of the majority should not lead to complacency.

然而，欧亚集团的苏卡索诺表示，大多数人的本性温和不应导致掉以轻心。

“In general the Muslim community in Indonesia is a lot more moderate than in the Middle East — but you don’t need a community to be radicalised,” he says. “You need a very few people.”

他表示：“总的来说，印尼的穆斯林比中东温和得多，但不需要整个穆斯林社会都变得激进，只要很少一部分人变得激进（就很危险）。”