难民危机终结默克尔黄金时代
At the beginning of this year, Angela Merkelhad a good claim to be the most successful politician in the world. The German chancellor had won three successive election victories. She was the dominant political figure in Europe and hugely popular at home.
今年初，安格拉默克尔(Angela Merkel)有很好的理由号称世界上最成功的政界人士。这位德国总理已连续三次胜选。她是欧洲最具影响力的政治人物，在国内也广受欢迎。
But the refugee crisis that has broken over Germany is likely to spell the end of the Merkel era. With the country in line to receive more than a million asylum-seekers this year alone, public anxiety is mounting and so is criticism of Ms Merkel, from within her own party. Some of her close political allies acknowledge that it is now distinctly possible that the chancellor will have to leave office, before the next general election in 2017. Even if she sees out a full term, the notion of a fourth Merkel administration, widely discussed a few months ago, now seems improbable.
然而，冲向德国的难民危机很可能预示着默克尔时代的终结。由于仅今年就要接收超过100万寻求庇护者，德国公众的焦虑情绪正在上升，党内对默克尔的批评也越来越多。几位与她关系密切的政治盟友承认，现在看来很有可能的是默克尔不得不在2017年下届大选前下台。即使她做完这一任期，几个月前还被广泛讨论的第四届默克尔政府如今看来已不太可能。
In some ways, all this is deeply unfair. Ms Merkel did not cause the Syrian civil war, or the troubles of Eritrea or Afghanistan. Her response to the plight of the millions of refugees displaced by conflict has been bold and compassionate. The chancellor has tried to live up to the best traditions of postwar Germany including respect for human-rights and a determination to abide by international legal obligations.
从某些方面看，这一切对默克尔非常不公。叙利亚内战、厄立特里亚或阿富汗的困境并非默克尔造成。她对数百万因冲突而流离失所的难民的回应是大胆而富有同情心的。默克尔已尽力保持了战后德国最优秀的传统包括尊重人权以及坚定遵守国际法律义务。
The trouble is that Ms Merkel’s government has clearly lost control of the situation. German officials publicly endorse the chancellor’s declaration that “We can do this”. But there is panic just beneath the surface: costs are mounting, social services are creaking, Ms Merkel’s poll ratings are falling and far-right violence is on the rise. Der Spiegel, a news magazine, wrote this week that: “Germany these days is a place where people feel entirely uninhibited about expressing their hatred and xenophobia.”
问题是默克尔政府显然已经失去了对局势的控制。虽然德国官员公开支持总理的声明“我们可以做到”，但表面之下隐藏着恐慌：开支越来越大，社会服务体系不堪重负，默克尔的民意支持率正在下滑，而极右暴力事件正在增多。德国新闻杂志《明镜周刊》(Der Spiegel)本周写道：“今天的德国已变成一个人们感觉可以完全不受约束地发泄仇恨和排外情绪的地方。”
As the placid surface of German society is disturbed, so arguments about the positive economic and demographic impact of immigration are losing their impact. Instead, fears about the long-term social and political effect of taking in so many newcomers particularly from the imploding Middle East are gaining ground. Meanwhile, refugees are still heading into Germany at a rate of around 10,000 a day. (By contrast, Britain is volunteering to accept 20,000 Syrian refugees over four years.)
随着德国社会表面的平静被打破，移民对经济和人口结构带来积极影响的观点正在失去市场。相反，对收容如此多的新来者尤其是来自正在内爆的中东的人带来的长期社会和政治影响的担忧正在加剧。与此同时，难民仍在以每天约1万人的速度涌入德国。（相比之下，英国愿意在4年期间收容2万名叙利亚难民。）
It is all such a contrast with the calm and control that Ms Merkel used to radiate, captured by her nickname Mutti (or “mum”). Throughout 2014, as Ms Merkel led Europe’s response to the eurozone crisis and Russia’s annexation of Crimea, German voters seemed more inclined than ever to place their faith in the judgment of the chancellor.
这与默克尔曾经展示出的镇定与控制体现在她的绰号“妈妈”(Mutti)上形成鲜明对比。2014年期间，随着默克尔领导欧洲应对欧元区危机以及俄罗斯对克里米亚的吞并，德国选民似乎比以往任何时候都更倾向于相信这位总理的判断。
The refugee crisis, however, revealed another side to Ms Merkel. Some voters seem to have concluded that Mutti has gone mad flinging open Germany’s borders to the wretched of the earth.
然而，难民危机展示了默克尔的另一面。一些选民似乎已经得出结论：妈妈已经疯了，她向全球的可怜人敞开了德国的边界。
That, of course, is a major oversimplification. Germany’s decision last month not to return Syrian asylum-seekers to the first safe country they had entered was, in part, just a pragmatic acknowledgment that such a policy was no longer practical. Nonetheless, Ms Merkel was widely seen as having announced an “open door”. That impression persists, making Germany (along with Sweden) the EU country of choice for asylum seekers.
当然，这是一种严重过于简单化的描述。德国上月决定不将叙利亚寻求庇护者遣返回他们进入的第一个安全国家，这在一定某种程度上只是务实地承认，这样的政策已不再可行。尽管如此，默克尔还是被广泛视为宣布了“开放边界”政策。这种印象挥之不去，使德国（连同瑞典）成为寻求庇护者首选的欧盟国家。
The only way to turn this situation around quickly would be to build border fences of the kind that the Hungarian government of Viktor Orban has constructed. Some German conservatives are now calling for precisely such measures. But Ms Merkel is highly unlikely to embrace the Orban option. She knows that such a policy could sound the death knell for free movement of people within the EU, and would also seriously destabilise the Balkans by bottling up refugees there.
迅速扭转这一局面的唯一途径，是在边境架起维克托欧尔班(Viktor Orban)领导的匈牙利政府所建的那种带刺铁丝网。德国一些保守派人士现在正在呼吁采取此类措施。但默克尔极不可能采用欧尔班的作法。她知道，这样的政策将为欧盟内部人口的自由流动敲响丧钟，也会将难民困在巴尔干半岛地区，从而严重破坏那里的稳定。
Instead, Ms Merkel wants an EU-wide solution. But German plans for a compulsory mechanism to share out refugees across the EU and for an emergency fund to share the costs are encountering stiff resistance. As a result, Germany’s relations with its EU partners, already strained by the eurozone crisis, are worsening. The election of an anti-migrant government in Poland this weekend will not help.
相反，默克尔希望拿出一项欧盟范围内的解决方案。但德国提出在欧盟各国分配难民的强制机制（以及一个分摊成本的应急基金）的计划遭遇了强烈的抵制。结果是，德国与欧盟伙伴之间本来就因欧元区危机而变得紧张的关系正在恶化。上周末反移民政府在波兰上台，将使情况变得更糟。
Could Ms Merkel still turn the situation around? If the German government gets lucky, the coming of winter will slow the flow of refugees, providing a breathing space to organise the reception of asylum seekers and to come up with new arrangements with transit countries, particularly Turkey.
默克尔还能扭转局势吗？如果德国政府幸运的话，冬天的到来将减缓难民流入，可以为安排收容寻求庇护者，并与难民过境国家（尤其是土耳其）一起制定新的安排提供喘息空间。
Should the chancellor regain control of the situation it remains possible that in 20 years’ time, she could yet be seen as the mother of a different, more vibrant and multicultural Germany a country that held on to its values when it was put to the test.
如果默克尔能够重新控制局势的话，那么20年后，她仍可能会被视为一个不同、更具活力和多元文化的德国一个在经受考验时坚持自己价值观的国家的“妈妈”。
However, if the number of refugees heading into Germany continues at its present level for some time, and Ms Merkel remains committed to open borders, the pressure for her to step down will grow. There are, at present, no obvious rivals. But a continuing crisis will doubtless throw some up.
然而，如果涌入德国的难民人数在一段时期内继续保持当前水平，而默克尔仍坚持开放边界，那么要求她下台的压力将会增大。目前，她还没有明显的对手。但持续发酵的危机无疑将让一些人跳出来。
Regardless of the chancellor’s personal fate and reputation, the refugee crisis marks a turning point. The decade after Ms Merkel first came to power in 2005 now looks like a blessed period for Germany, in which the country was able to enjoy peace, prosperity and international respect, while keeping the troubles of the world at a safe distance. That golden era is now over.
姑且不论默克尔的个人命运和声誉，这场难民危机标志着一个转折点。对德国而言，默克尔在2005年首次上台后的10年现在看起来是一段幸运的时期，在那期间，德国能够享受和平、繁荣和国际尊重，同时将世界的各种麻烦保持在安全距离之外。如今，这样的黄金时代已经结束。
