中国新丝绸之路的坎坷 地缘政治错综复杂
ANKARA, Turkey — As tensions in the Mideast and Ukraine rose in recent years, Turkey had moved to jointly manufacture a sophisticated missile defense system.
土耳其安卡拉——随着中东和乌克兰紧张局势在近几年升温，土耳其曾着手与人合作建造一个尖端的导弹防御系统。
But Turkey abruptly abandoned the plan just weeks ago in the face of strong opposition from its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
但是在遭到北约盟国的强烈反对后，土耳其几周前突然放弃了这项计划。
Their main objection: Turkey’s partner, a state-backed Chinese company. Western countries feared a loss of military secrets if Chinese technology were incorporated into Turkey’s air defenses.
他们的主要理由是：土耳其的合作伙伴，一家有政府背景的中国企业。西方国家担心，如果土耳其的防空系统采用中国技术，他们的军事机密可能泄露。
As one of its highest economic and foreign policy goals, China has laid out an extensive vision for close relations with Turkey and dozens of countries that were loosely connected along the Silk Road more than 1,000 years ago by land and seaborne trade.
作为经济和外交政策的最高目标之一，中国规划了一个广泛的愿景，想通过开展陆地和海上贸易，来与土耳其和上千年前“丝绸之路”上的几十个国家建立紧密关系。
But Beijing’s effort to revive ancient trade routes, a plan known as the Belt and Road Initiative, is causing geopolitical strains, with countries increasingly worried about becoming too dependent on China.
不过，北京试图重启这条古老贸易路线的“一带一路”计划正在制造地缘政治压力，这些国家越来越担心会变得过度依赖中国。
Kazakhstan has limited Chinese investment and immigration for fear of being overwhelmed. Kyrgyzstan has pursued warmer relations with Moscow as a balance to Beijing.
哈萨克斯坦担心自己难以招架，对中国投资和移民进行了限制。吉尔吉斯斯坦希望增进与俄罗斯的关系，用来平衡北京的影响力。
With the missile deal, Turkey was turning toward China partly to reduce its reliance on NATO. “Our national interest and NATO’s may not be the same for some actions,” said Ismail Demir, Turkey’s under secretary for national defense.
通过该导弹协议，土耳其是在转向中国。这在一定程度上是为了减少对北约的依赖。“在一些行动上，我们的国家利益和北约的利益可能不一致，”土耳其国防部副部长伊斯梅尔·德米尔(Ismail Demir)说。
But the deal immediately raised red flags in the West.
但协议立即遭到了西方的反对。
Besides the technology issues, the Chinese supplier, the China National Precision Machinery Import and Export Corporation, was the target of Western sanctions for providing ballistic missile technology to Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and Syria. So Turkish exports based on a partnership with China National Precision could have also been subject to sanctions.
除了技术问题，因向伊朗、朝鲜、巴基斯坦和叙利亚提供弹道导弹技术，这家名为中国精密机械进出口有限公司的供应商是西方的制裁对象。因此，在和该公司合作的基础上进行的土耳其出口可能也会受到制裁。
Complicating matters, China and Russia are close allies on many issues. Russia is especially distrusted here because of its military intervention in Syria and its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. And Turkey had been a close American ally ever since it sent a large contingent of troops to fight North Korea and China during the Korean War.
让情况愈发复杂的是，中国在很多问题上都是俄罗斯的亲密盟友。但在这里，因为入侵叙利亚并从乌克兰夺去了克里米亚，俄罗斯特别不得土耳其的信任。而且自从在朝鲜战争期间派遣一支庞大的军队同朝鲜和中国作战之后，土耳其一直是美国的亲密盟友。
The Chinese missile project “was one of the things that really made people say ‘Turkey is shifting, wow,’” said Mehmet Soylemez, an Asian studies specialist at the Institute for Social and Political Researches, an independent research group in Ankara. “China wants to remake the global financial and economic structure.”
涉及中国的导弹项目“确实是一件让人惊呼‘土耳其在转变’的事情”，位于安卡拉的独立研究机构社会政治研究所(Institute for Social and Political Researches)亚洲问题专家穆罕默德·索伊莱梅兹(Mehmet Soylemez)说。“中国想重塑全球金融和经济结构。”
With its wealth and markets, China is a tantalizing partner.
凭借其财富和市场，中国是一个令人垂涎的合作伙伴。
Many countries along the former Silk Road are frustrated by the difficulty of developing closer economic ties to the European Union. And they are alarmed that the American-led Trans-Pacific Partnership, a major regional trade deal, could give an edge to Malaysia and Vietnam.
丝绸之路沿途的很多国家，都恼于难以同欧盟发展更紧密的经济往来。而且它们担心，美国主导的大型地区性贸易协议“跨太平洋伙伴关系协定”（Trans Pacific Partnership，简称TPP）可能会让马来西亚和越南占据优势。
“So many years, we have been kept waiting at the edge of the E.U., and people are losing hope,” said Sahin Saylik, the general manager of Kirpart Otomotiv, a large Turkish auto parts manufacturer. “Turkey is not in the Trans-Pacific Partnership and problems in the Arab world are pushing Turkey to have other alternatives.”
“这么多年了，我们一直徘徊在欧盟大门口，大家都快不抱希望了，”沙欣·塞利克(Sahin Saylik) 说。他是土耳其大型汽车配件生产商科派公司(Kirpart Otomotiv)的总经理。“土耳其没有加入TPP，阿拉伯世界的各种问题又迫使土耳其做出其他选择。”
But the relationship with China is lopsided. Turkey imports $25 billion a year worth of goods from China, while exporting only $3 billion there.
然而，与中国的关系是一边倒的。土耳其每年从中国进口价值250亿美元的商品，而出口却仅有30亿美元。
In Turkey, stores are full of Chinese goods, from vacuum cleaners to tableware. Chinese companies have purchased coal and marble mines, as well as a 65 percent stake in Turkey’s third-largest container port. China is helping build nearly a dozen rail lines, and it is already a military supplier, selling lower-tech battlefield rockets to Turkey.
在土耳其，商店里充满了从吸尘器到餐具在内的各种中国商品。中国公司购买了土耳其的多座煤矿和大理石矿，并且拥有土耳其第三大集装箱码头65%的股份。中国在帮助建设十几条铁路，并且已是土耳其的军火供应商，在向其出售技术含量较低的火箭弹。
Companies are increasingly turning to China for cost reasons, buying components or importing fully assembled products. Arzum, one of Turkey’s best-known appliance manufacturers, did the engineering and marketing for its popular new Okka single-cup Turkish coffee brewers locally. But the brewers are manufactured in southeastern China.
出于成本方面的考虑，越来越多的公司转向中国购买零部件或进口成品。Arzum是土耳其著名的家电生产商，它在本地设计和推广其热销的新款Okka单杯土耳其咖啡机。但是，这些咖啡机是在中国华南地区制造的。
“Ten years ago, Turkey didn’t exactly see the threat of China for manufacturing,” said T. Murat Kolbasi, Arzum’s chairman. “The threat has to be changed to the opportunity.”
“十年前，土耳其并没有看到中国制造业的威胁。”Arzum董事长T·穆拉特·科尔巴希(T. Murat Kolbasi)说。“威胁必须转变成机遇。”
Chinese companies can quickly sever ties as well.
中国公司也可能会迅速地断绝关系。
The state-controlled China Machinery Engineering Corporation abruptly backed out of a $384.6 million deal to buy a 75 percent stake in the electricity grid of Eskisehir and nearby provinces in Turkey. It happened days after national elections in Turkey last June cast uncertainty on the future of the industry’s regulations.
国有企业中国机械设备工程股份有限公司突然退出了一项38.46亿美元的交易，不再购买土耳其埃斯基谢希尔及周边几个省份电网75%的股份。土耳其今年6月的全国选举对电力行业未来的监管带来了不确定性，而退出一事就发生在选举之后几天之内。
China Machinery provided no official reason to Turkish Electricity for canceling the deal. The Chinese company declined to comment.
这家中国公司没有向土耳其电力(Turkish Electricity)提供取消交易的官方原因，并拒绝就此事置评。
The Turkish Electricity Distribution Company, a nationwide grid company, is suing the Chinese company in an effort to collect a breakup fee. Mukremin Cepni, chief executive of Turkish Electricity, said that he had worked 18 months on the Eskisehir deal and was unenthusiastic about any more tie-ups with China.
全国性的电网企业“土耳其配电公司”(Turkish Electricity Distribution Company)正起诉这家中国公司，以期获得违约赔偿。土耳其电力公司首席执行官穆克雷米·塞帕尼(Mukremin Cepni)表示，他为埃斯基谢希尔的项目工作了18个月，如今对与中国的合作不再抱有热情。
“I won’t think well of them, because personally I struggled a lot, and their going away without giving any reason exhausted us,” said Mr. Cepni.
“我不会对他们有好感，因为我个人投入了很多，他们的不告而别耗尽了我们的热情，”塞帕尼说。
Ethnic issues have further complicated China’s relations. Many countries in the region are Muslim, and versions of Turkish are spoken in more than a dozen countries, partly a legacy of the Ottoman Empire.
民族问题使得与中国的关系进一步复杂化。该地区的许多国家信奉伊斯兰教，有十几个国家说不同版本的土耳其语言，有一部分是因为受到当年奥斯曼帝国的影响。
That history has fanned regional tensions over Beijing’s stringent policies toward the Uighurs, Muslims in China’s Xinjiang Province who speak a Turkic language. Beijing has blamed Uighurs for a series of attacks on Han Chinese from eastern China.
在这种历史背景下，北京当局对新疆说突厥语族语言的维吾尔穆斯林执行的严苛政策加剧了该地区的紧张局势。北京谴责维吾尔人对中国腹地的汉人进行了一系列攻击。
When China suppressed Uighur protests in 2009, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister at the time, condemned the actions as “a kind of genocide.” Last July, Turks and Uighurs held two rounds of protests in Istanbul and Ankara.
2009年中国镇压维吾尔人的抗议活动时，当时任土耳其总理的雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)谴责了这些行动，称之为“一种种族灭绝”。今年7月，土耳其人和维吾尔人在伊斯坦布尔和安卡拉进行了两轮抗议活动。
Now the president of Turkey, Mr. Erdogan is prioritizing ties with China. He calmed the anti-Chinese protests last summer by urging his countrymen to be wary of rumors on social media about China’s treatment of the Uighurs.
而现在，作为土耳其总统的埃尔多安却将与中国的关系视作重中之重。他平息了今夏的反华抗议，呼吁国人警惕社交媒体上有关中国如何对待维吾尔人的传闻。
Nationalistic Turkish groups like Anatolia Youth, previously outspoken about the Uighurs, have responded by softening their stance toward China. Mahmut Temelli, the chairman of Anatolia Youth’s foreign relations council, said that he believed that on missiles, “the bid should have remained with China.”
之前曾力挺维吾尔人的一些土耳其民族主义团体，比如安纳托利亚青年团(A北约lia Youth)，做出了响应，软化了对中国的立场。该团体的外交关系委员会主席马哈茂德 泰梅尔利(Mahmut Temelli)表示，他认为，在导弹问题上，“应该保持与中国的合作。”
The missiles became an international issue two years ago, when Turkey’s defense ministry announced it favored a Chinese bid. It beat out an American offer to sell fully built Patriot missiles, as well as similar deals with Western Europe and Russia.
两年前，导弹一事成为了国际议题，当时土耳其国防部宣布倾向于接受中国的投标。这击败了来自美国的出售成套爱国者导弹的投标，以及西欧和俄罗斯的类似提议。
Turkey wanted to churn out missiles, potentially for export in a few years, and to stop relying on NATO’s occasional deployments of Patriots. “You cannot protect a 911-kilometer border just with Patriots,” said Merve Seren, a security specialist at the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a pro-government public policy group in Ankara.
土耳其希望大量生产导弹，也许几年后还能出口，不再依赖北约偶尔部署的爱国者。“只用爱国者导弹保卫不了911公里的边界线，”梅尔韦·塞伦(Merve Seren)说。他是安卡拉一家亲政府的公共政策团体“政治、经济与社会研究基金会”(Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research)的安全专家。
And F-16 fighters, like the two that shot down the Russian warplane, cannot be on patrol continuously, Mr. Demir, the defense undersecretary, said. Missile systems can be ready around the clock.
土耳其国防部副部长德米尔认为，F-16战斗机——像击落俄罗斯战机的那两架——无法连续巡逻，而导弹系统可以全天待命。
As the Syrian conflict worsened, NATO’s limited supply of Patriot missiles meant that it sent only enough to protect three Turkish cities. NATO had begun to withdraw them when the Russian warplane was shot down.
随着叙利亚冲突的恶化，北约有限的爱国者导弹供应意味着，这些部署的导弹仅够保护三座土耳其城市。而且，在俄罗斯战机被击落后，北约还开始撤回这些导弹。
“NATO’s deployment of air defense systems is on and off,” Mr. Demir said, just hours after the the episode with the Russian warplane, videos of which played on the television in the background. “I don’t know if it if gives a message that your partners can rely on.”
“北约的防空系统部署变化无常，”德米尔说，仅在土耳其与俄罗斯战机事件之后的几个小时，视频在电视上播放，充当背景。“我不知道它是否在给出伙伴可以依靠的讯息。”
But Turkey had a huge blind spot with the missile project.
不过，土耳其的导弹计划中有一个巨大的盲点。
Turkish military analysts compared on a long list of variables, like missile range and the willingness to share technology and manufacturing. The analysis was approved by a committee including the defense minister, generals and Mr. Erdogan, Mr. Demir said.
土耳其的军事分析师比较了一系列变量，如导弹射程以及分享技术和合作制造的意愿等。德米尔称，该分析报告获得了由国防部长、军队将领和总统本人组成的一个委员会的批准。
But nobody consulted the foreign ministry on how Turkey’s allies would react, partly because NATO had already tolerated Greece’s acquisition of Russian air defense missiles from Cyprus. “They were informed after the process was completed,” Mr. Demir said. “It was not treated as a special project that will have a lot of political results.”
但是，没有人向外交部咨询土耳其的盟友会有什么反应，其中部分原因是，北约容忍了希腊通过塞浦路斯购买俄罗斯的防空导弹。德米尔说，“他们在事情完成后才得到通知。此事并没有被当成会有诸多政治后果的特殊计划。”
Within days of the announcement about China’s leading bid, NATO organized a campaign to overturn the decision. President Obama, Western European heads of state and top NATO commanders contacted Turkish leaders.
在宣布中国在竞标中领先后，几天之内，北约便组织了意在推翻该决定的行动。美国总统奥巴马、西欧各国领导人以及北约的主要指挥官轮番与土耳其领导人接触。
NATO officials have been cautious, saying any country has a right to choose its own equipment. But they have publicly expressed concern that Chinese missiles might not be compatible with NATO equipment — and privately that they were loath to share technical details to make compatibility possible.
北约官员一直出言谨慎，声称任何国家都有权选择自己的装备。但是，在公开场合，他们表示担心中国的导弹可能与北约的装备不兼容——而在私下里，他们也不愿分享技术细节以实现这种兼容。
Last month, Turkey opted to go ahead on its own. It will probably subcontract some components to foreign manufacturers, possibly China National Precision.
上月，土耳其选择了自行完成部署计划。它很可能会将一些零部件转包给海外生产商，其中或许就包括中国精密机械进出口有限公司。
An engraved metal plate from China National Precision in a polished rosewood box still sat on a shelf outside Mr. Demir’s office the morning the Russian warplane was shot down. Hours of negotiating with Chinese arms makers has forged a relationship that will make future military cooperation easier, Mr. Demir said.
在俄罗斯战机被击落的那个上午，在德米尔办公室外面的书架上，放着一块雕刻的金属板。这块装在精美的黄檀木盒中的金属板就来自这家中国精密机械公司。德米尔表示，经过与中国军火商无数个小时的谈判，双方缔结的关系将使今后的军事合作变得更加方便。
“There is a value,” he said, “in the time we have spent with these companies.”
“我们花时间与这些公司交涉是有价值的，”他说。
