印度不应错过风云时刻 This is the Indian moment Modi must not waste it

This should be India’s moment. The country has the highest growth rate among major economies. The International Monetary Fund describes it as a bright spot in an otherwise mostly dismal world economy. Narendra Modi, prime minister, basks in the resounding mandate he received at the polls two years ago from a population desperate for a sign of economic revival.

如今应该是印度的风云时刻。它是各大经济体中经济增速最快的国家。国际货币基金组织(IMF)形容它是愁云惨淡的世界经济中的一个亮点。印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)仍然享受着两年前从渴望经济振兴的选民手中得到的明确授权。

Yet two years into Mr Modi’s tenure, his government continues to avoid many hard choices. India could come to rue a missed opportunity to implement a more ambitious reform agenda.

不过，莫迪上任已经两年，他的政府继续回避着很多艰难抉择。印度可能会后悔错过了推行更具雄心的改革议程的良机。

Sceptics question whether the economy is really growing at the official pace of 7.5 per cent. Even government officials agree that newly revised data collection procedures present a picture at odds with other figures.

持怀疑态度的人对经济是否真的在以7.5%的官方速度增长提出质疑。甚至政府官员也承认，新近修订后的数据采集程序所呈现的景象与其他数据不符。

Still, India has good growth momentum. The fall in world oil prices has been a boon, reducing the budget and current account deficits. India is not likely to be hit hard by either a growth slowdown in China or a US interest rate increase. Domestic and external circumstances could not be more favourable.

话虽如此，印度拥有良好的增长势头。全球油价下跌是一大利好，有利于印度降低预算并减少经常账户赤字。印度不太可能受到中国经济增速放缓以及美国加息的重创。印度国内和外部环境不可能比现在更有利了。

To be fair, his government has accomplished a lot. Macroeconomic stability is at hand. Mr Modi has supported the Reserve Bank of India’s struggle against inflation. He has largely maintained budget discipline and made progress on financial inclusion.

公平地说，莫迪政府已经实现了很多成就。宏观经济稳定近在咫尺。莫迪支持了印度央行对抗通胀。他基本上守住了预算纪律，在金融包容性上也取得了进展。

Access to the formal financial system gives the poor the feeling that they have a shot at sharing in the benefits of reforms, rather than merely bearing any costs of dislocation. The government has emphasised better public governance as well, although the fight against corruption is not being executed with any great vigour.

能够利用正规的金融体系，让穷人们感觉自己有望分享改革的成果，而不只是承担经济混乱的代价。印度政府还强调改善公共治理，尽管反腐运动的力度并不大。

However, unless Mr Modi builds quickly on these foundations, India’s moment of glory could be shortlived. For all the positive economic data, private investment remains tepid as businesses are not convinced that the economy is on the right path.

然而，除非莫迪迅速在这些基础之上继续推进，否则印度的辉煌时刻可能转瞬即逝。尽管所有的经济数据都令人乐观，但是私人投资热情仍然不高，企业并未确信印度经济已进入正轨。

What India really needs are bold reforms to make growth more durable. The list of such reforms is long and includes reducing labour market -regulations, unshackling businesses from red tape, fixing the banks, developing capital markets and improving infrastructure.

印度真正需要的是大胆改革，使经济增长更加持久。此类改革的清单很长，包括减少劳动力市场的规章制度、让企业摆脱官僚主义的枷锁、修补银行系统、发展资本市场，以及改善基础设施。

Given the size of his mandate, Mr Modi ought to lay out a vision of where he wants to take the country and use his rapport with voters to build broad support for a reform agenda. He has argued that he would rather accomplish things than set out a grand vision that he may not be able to deliver. But words as well as ideas have power and he needs to use his political capital to push for economic reforms, rather than using it to advance his party’s social agenda.

考虑到莫迪获得的民意授权之大，他应该勾勒出他对印度未来发展的愿景，利用他在选民中的人气为改革议程争取广泛支持。他曾争辩道，他宁愿脚踏实地地实现目标，也不愿兜售他可能无法实现的宏伟蓝图。但是，话语和想法是具有力量的，他需要利用自己的政治资本去推动经济改革，而不是推进其政党的社会议程。

He could learn a lesson or two from Beijing. Although China is hardly a paragon in this area, its government has created effective narratives that rally public support for reform and break down opposition. The plan to reduce inequality and the attempt to make the renminbi an international currency are examples. The concrete measures encompassed by these plans, including reform of state enterprises, financial market development, capital market reforms and liberalisation of the services sector, would all be good for the economy, even if the grand objectives are not achieved.

他可以从北京方面借鉴一点经验。尽管中国算不上是该领域的模范，但是中国政府掌握了有效的话语权，凝聚公众对改革的支持并克服反对。减少不平等的计划和推动人民币国际化的尝试就是例子。这些计划所包含的具体措施包括国企改革、发展金融市场、资本市场改革以及推动服务业自由化，这一切都将有助于经济发展——即使无法实现那些宏伟目标。

Rather than gloating about Indian growth, Mr Modi needs to make an aggressive push to reform the economy when the going is good. No one expects an overnight transformation. But a clear sense of where he wants to take the country and a willingness to expend political capital would go a long way in building momentum for the reforms that India desperately needs.

莫迪不应该沾沾自喜于印度的经济增长，而是需要在形势较好时锐意推动经济改革。没人指望一夜间发生翻天覆地的变化。但是，只要他明确印度的发展方向，并愿意动用政治资本，将大大有利于为印度迫切需要的经济改革积攒势头。