潜航器风波打破中美海军关系改善势头

China’s seizure of a US navy submarine drone signals its willingness to push back harder against American surveillance in the South China Sea,

中国扣押美国海军无人潜航器这件事表明，北京方面有意以更强硬的方式回击美国在南中国海的监测活动。

as tensions mount between the two nations ahead of the presidential inauguration of Donald Trump.

在唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)即将迎来总统就职典礼之际，中美两国间的紧张气氛正在升温。

The Pentagon said China had agreed to return the surveillance device, which was seized in international waters on Thursday.

五角大楼(Pentagon)表示，中国已同意归还上周四其在国际水域捕获的监测设备。

But the incident highlights concern about the direction of US-China ties amid uncertainty about the stance Mr Trump will adopt.

但这起事件凸显了，在不确定特朗普将采取何种立场的氛围中，美中关系发展方向令人担忧。

Mr Trump has been critical about China since launching his campaign, on everything from trade policy to its assertive moves in the South China Sea.

自参加大选以来，特朗普一直对中国批评有加——从贸易政策到中国在南中国海的强硬行动。

After his victory, however, he sparked alarm in Beijing and among many experts in Washington by speaking to the Taiwanese president and hinting that he might abandon the One China policy that has guided US policy on China and Taiwan for four decades.

而胜选后，他与台湾总统通电话并暗示可能放弃40年来一直指引美国台海政策的一个中国政策，这引发了北京方面以及华盛顿许多专家的警惕。

The president-elect cricised China over the drone incident, which he said was unprecedented" before saying that the US should allow China to keep the device.

这位美国当选总统就此次无人潜航器被扣事件批评中国称，该事件史无前例，随后又表示，美国应让中国留着这个设备。

We should tell China that we don’t want the drone they stole back —

他在Twitter上写道：我们应该告诉中国，我们不想要回他们偷走的无人潜航器。

let them keep it! he tweeted.

让他们留着吧！

While US-Sino relations usually enter a period of uncertainly at a time of administration change in Washington, analysts said that the apprehension surrounding the drone in disputed waters bucks the recent trend of improving ties between the US and Chinese navies.

虽然美中关系在美国政府换届之际通常都会进入一段不确定期，但分析人士表示，此次争议水域潜航器事件引发的担忧，与近年来两国海军关系不断改善的势头背道而驰。

This goes against the grain of the professionalisation of [China’s] People’s Liberation Army Navy over the past few years, as it seemed to be embracing confidence-building measures with the US, said Euan Graham, a security analyst at the Lowy Institute, a think-tank in Sydney.

这与（中国）人民解放军海军近些年的专业化相悖，因为中国海军似乎正在接受与美国建立信任的措施，悉尼智库洛伊研究所(Lowy Institute)安全问题分析家尤安.格雷厄姆(Euan Graham)表示，

This is a significant escalation with a navy ship interfering with another navy ship at close quarters.

一艘海军舰艇近距离干扰另一艘海军舰艇作业，这是严重升级了。

Ni Lexiong, a naval expert at the East China University, said the seizure was a reminder to surrounding countries in the South China Sea area, as well as the US and Japan, to reconsider China’s stance on defending its territory.

上海政法学院海军专家倪乐雄表示，此次扣押是提醒南中国海周边国家以及美国和日本，他们需要重新认识中国捍卫本国领土的立场。

The Pentagon said the drone, which was being operated by the USNS Bowditch, a civilian-operated navy survey vessel, was taken unlawfully by a Chinese naval ship on Thursday, 50 nautical miles from Subic Bay in the Philippines.

五角大楼表示，这具由美国鲍迪奇号(Bowditch)海军测量船操控的无人潜航器，上周四在距离菲律宾苏比克湾(Subic Bay) 50海里的水域被一艘中国海军舰只非法捞起。

Such drones are typically used to collect oceanographic data such as water depth and salinity.

鲍迪奇号由非军事人员操纵，而此类无人潜航器通常用于收集水深、盐度等海洋数据。

China’s defence ministry said that it had seized the drone to prevent it endangering the navigation and crew of the Chinese ship.

中国国防部表示，捕获该无人潜航器是为了防止该装置对过往船舶的航行安全和人员安全产生危害。

But it also reiterated its opposition to US military reconnaissance operations in the waters around China.

中国国防部还重申，反对美国在中国周边海域进行军事侦察活动。

Analysts said that while the information gleaned from underwater drones was not classified, it was vital to the operation of the submarines that both sides operate in the South China Sea.

分析人士表示无人潜航器收集的信息虽然并非机密资料，但对双方潜艇在南中国海的作业却至关重要。

Li Mingjiang, a China expert at the S.

新加坡拉惹勒南国际研究院(S.

Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said Beijing was willing to risk an escalation with Washington over the latest incident because it was worried about US plans to expand the use of naval drones in the South China Sea.

Rajaratnam School of International Studies)中国问题专家李明江表示，北京之所以愿与华盛顿在这起最新事件中冒险升级态势，是因为它担心美国计划在南中国海增加部署海军潜航器。

PLA leaders have good reason to worry about this emerging US naval strategy against China in East Asia, he said.

他说：解放军高层有充分理由担心美国海军正在构建的在东亚与中国对抗的新战略。

If this strategy becomes reality, it could be quite detrimental to China’s national security.

如果该战略成为现实，对中国的国家安全可能相当不利。

Yue Gang, a retired PLA colonel, said that while the Bowditch might have been in international waters, it was almost certain that the drone was conducting espionage activities within the nine-dashed line,

解放军退役上校岳刚表示，虽然鲍迪奇号或许是在国际水域航行，但几乎可以肯定该潜航器在九段线内进行间谍活动。

Beijing’s contested claim to much of the South China Sea.

北京方面依据九段线主张拥有南中国海大部分海域，这一主张引起了争议。

He said that Beijing’s response was a significant signal of its displeasure with US policy, while also giving the navy time to analyse the drone to obtain evidence of the espionage activities.

岳刚表示北京的反应是对美国政策不满的一个重要信号，同时也让海军有时间分析这架潜航器，以获得间谍活动的证据。

Western analysts said that such a brazen act would undermine other nations’ confidence in China’s commitment to global norms.

西方分析人士表示，这种肆无忌惮的行为会破坏其他国家对中国遵守全球规范承诺的信心。

It’s illegal and it fuels concerns about whether China is really willing to abide by the international right of freedom of navigation, said Ian Storey, a senior fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

新加坡东南亚研究所(ISEAS)高级研究员伊恩.斯托里(Ian Storey)表示：这是个非法举动，它引起了人们的担忧，中国是否真的愿意遵守国际上的航行自由权？

Security analysts also said that the seizure would prompt the US and others to rethink how they deploy civilian survey vessels and underwater drones.

安全分析师还表示，扣留潜航器事件将促使美国和其他国家重新思考如何部署民用勘探船和水下潜航器。

There will have to be a reappraisal of how unarmed US vessels do business in the South China Sea, said Mr Graham of the Lowy Institute.

洛伊研究所的格雷厄姆表示：必须对美国非武装船只在南中国海的作业方式进行重新评估。

They’re going to require an escort or armed personnel on board.

它们将需要护卫舰，或在船上配备武装人员。

Heiko Borchert, a security consultant, said that China’s actions highlight the risks of deploying drones in a non-benign naval environment.

安全顾问海科.博彻特(Heiko Borchert)表示，中方此举突显出了在非良性海军环境部署潜航器的风险。

The incident shows that the tactical and strategic benefits of unmanned underwater vehicles can quickly turn into a strategic liability if other actors are not willing to back down on their own policy line, he wrote on the website of the Center for International Maritime Security, a US think-tank.

博彻特在美国智库国际海事安全中心(Center for International Maritime Security)的网站上写道：这一事件表明，如果其他行事方不愿意在自己的政策路线上让步，水下无人装置的战术和战略利益可能很快就会变成战略负担。