前任们都失败了,文在寅能与朝鲜达成和平吗?

SEOUL, South Korea — The last time his liberal political party was in power, Moon Jae-in saw his boss at the time, Roh Moo-hyun, then South Korea’s president, walk across the Demilitarized Zone into North Korea for a summit meeting that resulted in a peace declaration and promises of massive aid.

韩国首尔——上一次他的自由派政党执政时，文在寅看着他当时的老板、时任韩国总统卢武铉穿过非军事区，进入朝鲜参加一场峰会，那场会议达成了一项和平宣言和提供大量援助的承诺。

He then saw those deals discarded a year later, in 2008, by a newly elected president who sought closer ties with President George W. Bush, who had branded the North part of an “axis of evil.”

一年后的2008年，他看到了这些协议被一位新当选的总统抛弃，那位总统寻求与布什总统建立更加密切的关系，后者曾把朝鲜称为“邪恶轴心国”。

Now, as president of South Korea, Moon is keen not to repeat past failures as he stakes his own political career on brokering a deal between the unpredictable leaders of the United States, his nation’s protector, and North Korea, long its mortal foe.

现在，作为韩国总统，他赌上自己的政治事业，以中间人的身份协助美国和朝鲜的两个难以捉摸的领导人达成协议，美国是他的国家的保护者，而朝鲜是其长期的死敌，文在寅希望不要重复过去的失败。

As chief of staff during the Roh administration, from 2003 to 2008, Moon did not participate in the negotiations with the North, led at the time by Kim Jong Il, the father of the current leader, or join Roh’s overland visit to Pyongyang, the North Korean capital. But he did help Roh organize those talks, held in October 2007.

曾在2003年到2008年的卢武铉政府中担任幕僚长的文在寅没有参加与朝鲜的谈判，当时的朝鲜由现任领导人之父金正日统治，文在寅也没有参加卢武铉经陆路对朝鲜首都平壤的访问。但他协助卢武铉组织了2007年10月举行的会谈。

He has clearly taken to heart what he sees as the lessons of that stillborn peace initiative.

对于那次夭折的和平行动，他显然吸取了一些教训。

One takeaway was that advancing inter-Korean relations with generous offers of aid is a non-starter so long as the United States remained locked in a standoff with the North over its nuclear weapons program.

其中一个教训是，只要美国在核武器项目方面与朝鲜僵持不下，那么通过慷慨地提供援助来推进韩朝关系是不可取的。

Another was that any deal with North Korea must be struck and implemented early in the terms of the South Korean and U.S. presidents. This ensures the agreement does not die with a change of governments and political ideologies in Seoul and Washington, as the 2007 agreement and other past deals did.

另一个教训是，任何与朝鲜的协议都必须在韩国和美国总统首肯下尽早实施。这会确保协议不会因为首尔和华盛顿的政府交替和政治意识形态转变而夭折，2007年的协议和其他过去的协议经历的正是这种情况。

“When we look back, the most important thing is speed,” Moon told the current North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, during their meeting last week in the Demilitarized Zone, the fortified border separating the two Koreas.

“当我们回顾过去时发现，最重要的就是速度，”文在寅上周在非军事区举行的会谈上对朝鲜现任领导人金正恩这样说，这个区域是分隔朝鲜两国的设防边界。

During that meeting, Moon urged the North Korean to move quickly to make a deal with President Donald Trump during their talks, expected later this month or next month. “We have to learn lessons from the past,” Moon told Kim.

在这场会议中，文在寅敦促朝鲜迅速采取行动，与唐纳德·特朗普总统在谈判中达成协议，谈判预计将在本月末或下个月举行。“我们必须吸取过去的教训，”文在寅对金正恩说。

That need for speed is apparent in the fast pace of diplomacy that appears to be leading to a first-ever summit meeting between the leaders of the United States and North Korea, who just a few months ago appeared on the brink of war.

在快速的外交发展中，对速度的需求显而易见，这些发展似乎促成了美国与朝鲜领导人之间首次举行峰会，几个月前，两国看起来还处于爆发战争的边缘。

Moon, 65, has played a key role in bringing together Trump and Kim, who now appear likely to meet at Panmunjom, the same “truce village” in the Demilitarized Zone where Moon held his talks with Kim.

在让特朗普和金正恩携手赴会的成就上，65岁的文在寅发挥了关键作用，他们两人现在可能会在板门店会面，也就是非军事区中文在寅与金正恩举行了会谈的那座“休战村”。

Such a meeting would be a triumph for Moon, who has experienced both highs and lows in his country’s relations with North Korea.

这样的一场会面，将是经历了朝韩关系起起落落的文在寅的一项成就。

Moon was a conscripted member of an elite paratroop unit in 1976, when axe-wielding North Korean troops murdered two U.S. Army officers while they pruned a poplar tree that blocked their view at Panmunjom. In “Operation Paul Bunyan,” Moon’s unit was sent in to finish chopping down the tree while the North Koreans stood back.

1976年美军试图在板门店砍倒一棵阻挡视线的白杨树时，挥舞着斧头的朝鲜士兵杀害了两名美国陆军军官，当时文在寅是韩国一支精锐伞兵部队的征召士兵。在“保罗·班扬行动”中，文在寅的部队被派去完成砍树任务，朝鲜没有做出反应。

Until last week, Moon’s only visit to North Korea was in 2004, when he accompanied his mother on a government-arranged reunion to see her younger sister for the first time since the Korean War. Moon himself was born in a refugee camp during the war, after his parents fled their native North Korea on board a U.S. Navy cargo ship.

在上周之前，文在寅唯一一次访问朝鲜是在2004年，当时为了在朝鲜战争结束后第一次与他母亲的妹妹相见，他陪伴母亲一起参加了政府安排的团聚活动。他的父母当年乘坐美国海军货船逃离朝鲜的故乡，他本人是战争期间在一座难民营中出生的。

His approach to handling the United States is one of Moon’s biggest departures from his predecessor, Roh, who committed suicide in 2009 amid corruption allegations surrounding his relatives.

他与其前任卢武铉的最大不同在于和美国打交道的方式，后者于2009年因亲属涉嫌腐败而自杀。

Moon appears to have concluded that Roh doomed his own peace deal at least in part by failing to get Bush to back it. Instead, Roh, fiery and blunt, had vowed not to “kowtow to the Americans.”

文在寅似乎认定，卢武铉断送了他自己的和平协议，至少部分是因为他没有得到布什的支持。相反，愤怒而直率的卢武铉誓言不会“向美国人屈膝”。

Since taking office last year, Moon has shown himself more sophisticated and accommodating in managing relations with Washington.

自去年上任以来，文在寅在管理同华盛顿的关系方面证明了自己更加精明灵活。

He has closely consulted with the White House during the current rush of diplomacy. Moon has also been careful in public to credit Trump for making the current breakthroughs possible, saying that he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize.

在当前的外交冲突中，他与白宫密切协商。在公开场合，他非常小心地把当前实现的突破归功于特朗普，表示特朗普理应获得诺贝尔和平奖。

The need to bring in America also reflects hard-earned domestic political lessons. Moon saw Roh and Kim Dae-jung, the two presidents who championed what was called the Sunshine Policy of engagement with North Korea, fail as the North persisted in its weapons programs despite generous aid.

这种让美国参与其中的需要，也反映了他在本国政治中吸取的苦涩教训。文在寅看到，卢武铉和金大中两位总统支持与朝鲜接触的所谓阳光政策，但他们失败了，因为尽管获得慷慨的援助，朝鲜依然坚持它的武器计划。

Both died heartbroken men, with their legacy dismantled by their conservative foes, who ridiculed them as naive and pro-North Korean.

两人都在痛心中死去，保守派政敌不但废除他们的政治遗产，还嘲笑他们幼稚和亲朝鲜。

“One thing South Korea has learned is that it cannot improve ties with North Korea without progress in denuclearizing North Korea,” said Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul. Otherwise, he said, any deal “would be like building a house cards.”

“韩国已经明白，如果朝鲜无核化不能取得进展，它就不能改善同朝鲜的关系，”首尔东国大学(Dongguk University)研究朝鲜问题的教授金容铉(Kim Yong-hyun)表示，否则任何交易“就像是盖纸牌屋一样。”

During his meeting with Kim at Panmunjom, Moon’s highest priority appeared to be convincing the young North Korean dictator that he could create a better future by striking a deal with Washington to rebuild his country’s economy in exchange for giving up his nuclear arsenal.

在同金正恩的板门店会面中，文在寅的最优先事项似乎是让这位年轻的朝鲜独裁者相信，他可以通过与华盛顿达成协议来创造更美好的未来，以放弃他的核武库为代价，重建他的国家经济。

Despite the spectacle of the two Korean leaders leisurely holding hands as they stepped across their nations’ border, Moon and his aides compared his mission to “walking on this ice,” and urged Kim to quickly sign and implement a deal while he and Trump were in office.

尽管朝韩领导人在跨越国界时不慌不忙地手挽着手，但文在寅和助手们说他的使命“如履薄冰”，他们敦促金正恩在文在寅和特朗普任内迅速签署并执行协议。

“I am still in the first year of my term. I hope we can maintain this speed through my term,” Moon told Kim during their meeting.

“我仍然在任期的第一年。我希望我们能在我的任期内保持这种速度，”文在寅在会议期间对金正恩说。

So far, Moon’s gambit seems to be winning broad support within South Korea. Opinion polls show his approval ratings surging, with some nine out of 10 South Koreans viewing the DMZ meeting as a success.

迄今为止，文在寅的开局似乎赢得了韩国的广泛支持。民意调查显示他的支持率飙升，十个韩国人中有九人认为非军事区的会议是成功的。

Not all South Koreans are convinced, however.

然而，并不是所有的韩国人都如此确信。

Hong Joon-pyo, leader of the main conservative opposition Korean Liberty Party, likened Moon to former British Prime Minister Arthur Neville Chamberlain, who he said fell into Hitler’s “trap of false peace.”

主要反对党，保守派的自由韩国党(Korean Liberty Party)领导人洪准杓(Hong Joon-pyo)把文在寅比作英国前首相亚瑟·内维尔·张伯伦(Arthur Neville Chamberlain)，他说，张伯伦陷入了希特勒的“虚假和平陷阱”。

“After being cheated eight times, did he still think for a ninth time that North Korea would not cheat this time?” Hong said.

“在被骗了八次之后，第九次他还认为朝鲜这回不会骗人？”洪准杓说。