苍茫大海上的风车 海上风电的德国教训

For years, Germany's ambitious effort to generate bountiful electricity with wind farms rising from the deep blue sea has been drowning in red ink. Now, investors like Blackstone Group LP and suppliers like Siemens AG are looking to buck that trend.

多年来德国雄心勃勃的开发海上风电的计划举步维艰，一直处于亏损之中。现在像黑石集团(Blackstone)这样的投资者以及西门子(Siemens AG)等供应商则希望扭转这一势头。

Offshore wind holds enormous potential for plentiful, environmentally friendly energy because the open sea is almost always windy. But ever since Germany started planning investments in the sector -- around the start of the century -- obstacles have piled up, including a lack of component suppliers and the absence of equipment needed to link turbines to the national power grid. Even the ships needed for construction out in open water were unavailable.

由于大海上几乎总是有风，因此海风具有开发丰富且环保电力资源的巨大潜力。但自从德国在本世纪初开始规划海上风电项目投资以来，遭遇了重重阻力，包括缺少配件供应商、没有连接风力涡轮和国家电网所需的设备。即便是在开放水域建设所需的船只也无从获得。

As a result, early offshore-wind projects blew through budgets and schedules because developers had to invest billions of dollars in ports, special barges and power connections.

因此早期的海上风电项目预算严重超标，投产也被延迟，因为开发商需要为港口、专用船只及电力连接设备投入数十亿美元。

Siemens, the world's largest manufacturer of offshore wind turbines, and its partners concede they underestimated the challenges behind offshore wind. The financial fallout from these challenges was highlighted last week, when Siemens said it booked 128 million euros ($171 million) in new charges related to connecting offshore wind farms to the power grid. It blamed unexpectedly high costs for shipping, installing and starting up grid components.

全球第一大海上风电涡轮生产商西门子及其合作伙伴承认，他们低估了海上风电项目背后的挑战。上周这些挑战对财务的影响得到了印证。西门子表示，公司新计入1.28亿欧元（合1.71亿美元）与连接海上风电场和电网相关的支出。西门子称运输、安装以及启动涡轮组件的成本高出了预期。

They say, however, that they managed to learn new skills in the process.

不过该公司表示，在这一过程中他们学到了新的技能。

Private-equity firm Blackstone and German project developer WindMW have invested 1.2 billion euros in the Meerwind -- German for 'sea wind' -- project, more than 50 miles (about 85 kilometers) off Germany's coast on the North Sea. Meerwind, which counts 80 massive Siemens turbines, is expected to start delivering electricity late this year -- about a year behind schedule.

私募股权公司黑石集团和德国项目开发商WindMW已在这个位于北海、距离德国海岸50多英里（约合85公里）的海上风电项目上投入了12亿欧元。这个名为Meerwind的项目共有80个大型西门子涡轮机，预计将在今年底开始发电，比原定时间推迟了一年左右。

Building Meerwind proved daunting, despite its relatively shallow waters. Engineers had to anchor foundations for turbines, transformers and converter stations more than 130 feet beneath the surface, which proved far more difficult than expected.

虽然处于浅水，但Meerwind的建设异常艰难。工程师必须将涡轮机、变压器和换流站的底座固定在水面以下130多英尺处。这个过程的难度被证明比预期大得多。

Another problem was wiring the system to move gigawatts from the sea to consumers on land. This requires offshore converter stations the size of factories, which Siemens builds at a price of around 1 billion euros each.

另一个问题是给这个系统装电线，以便将海上发的电输送给陆地的消费者。这需要建设规模有工厂那么大的海上换流站。每建一个换流站花掉西门子大约10亿欧元。

Siemens says delays in manufacturing and preparing the converters have cost it roughly 900 million euros in the past two years, including the latest charges announced Thursday. The company finally installed the last two stations in July.

西门子称，过去两年在制造和准备换流站方面的拖延使公司损失近9亿欧元，其中包括周四宣布计提的支出。西门子在7月份终于安装完了最后两个换流站。

Tim Dawidowsky, chief executive of Siemens's electricity-transmission unit, said Siemens has nearly doubled the amount of time allotted to build offshore converter stations to five years.

西门子输电子公司的首席执行长Tim Dawidowsky说，西门子为建造离岸换流站安排的时间增至五年，延长了近一倍。

Despite its challenges, wind power remains a crucial element in Germany's strategy to replace nuclear and fossil-fuel plants with more environmental sources. The country's exit from nuclear energy was speeded up after a tsunami crippled Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant in March 2011. Germany closed eight of its oldest nuclear plants immediately following the disaster and plans to close the other nine by 2022.

尽管存在上述挑战，但在德国用更环保电力来源取代核电厂和化石燃料电厂的策略中，风电仍占有重要地位。在2011年3月海啸导致日本福岛核电站发生事故后，德国加快了退出核电的步伐。福岛核电站事故发生后，德国立即关闭了八座最老旧的核电站，并计划到2022年关闭余下九座核电站。

Other wind farms, including the Nordsee Ost project developed by German utility RWE AG, are under construction.

其他风电站在建设中，包括德国公共事业公司RWE AG开发的Nordsee Ost项目。

Last year, renewable energies accounted for 24% of Germany's power generation. And with a share of more than one third of that, wind energy is by far the biggest generator of 'green' electricity in the country, according to energy lobby BDEW.

去年，可再生能源发电量占德国发电量的24%。能源业游说团体BDEW说，风电占德国可再生能源发电量的比例超过三分之一，是德国“绿色”电力的最大来源。

Offshore wind only accounts for a fraction -- less than 1% -- of the Germany's renewable-energy generation, but the densely populated country already has allocated its most promising onshore wind spots, leading investors to look to the sea.

海上风力发电在德国再生能源发电中仅占很小的一部分──不到1%，然而在这个人口密集的国家，最有前景的陆上风力发电项目已经瓜分完毕，所以投资者们只好将目光投向海上风力发电。

To date, Germany has an offshore capacity of around 630 megawatts of offshore wind power and plans to boost that tenfold by 2020 to 6.5 gigawatts. By 2030, it aims for offshore capacity of 15 gigawatts.

迄今为止，德国的海上风力发电量约为630兆瓦，德国计划使海上风力发电能力到2020年提高到10倍，达到6.5千兆瓦；到2030年达到15千兆瓦。

Technological challenges behind offshore wind may be shrinking, but the economics remain daunting. One kilowatt-hour of electricity generated offshore costs up to 18 European cents, compared with 11 cents for solar power and 8 cents for onshore wind. Coal and gas plants generate electricity for as little as 4 cents per kwh.

海上风力发电在技术上日趋成熟，但从经济角度来考虑，仍令人踌躇。海上风力发电的成本最高可达0.18欧元/度，而太阳能发电和陆上风力发电的成本分布为0.11欧元和0.08欧元，煤炭和天然气发电的成本则低达0.04欧元。

'Long-term subsidy programs need to be in place to cover this gap,' said Magnus Dale, senior analyst at consultancy IHS Energy in Paris.

咨询机构IHS Energy的高级分析师戴尔(Magnus Dale)表示，要弥补以上差距需要有长期补贴项目。

Germany is offering long-term support to the sector, guaranteeing subsidies for offshore wind farms for up to 12 years, despite having slashed its capacity target through 2030 by 40% as part of an effort to curb spiraling costs.

德国正在向该行业提供长期支持，为海上风电场提供最长12年的补贴，尽管该国已经把到2030年的装机容量目标下调了40%，以遏制不断上升的成本。

The country still expects total renewables subsidies to rise to around 24 billion euros this year, a bill that electricity consumers are paying through a surcharge on their power bills.

德国仍预计，今年可再生能源补贴总额将升至大约240亿欧元，而这笔钱将由电力消费者买单──通过额外收取电费的形式。

The industry believes that further industrialization and technological progress will help reduce the cost of offshore wind.

该行业认为，工业化的进一步发展和科技的进步，将有助于削减海上风力发电的成本。

Michael Hannibal, head of Siemens's wind-power division, said the offshore industry aims to cut costs by around 40% by 2020. This would still be around 35% higher than onshore wind today -- and 2.7 times more expensive than coal and gas -- but more reductions are expected to follow. To achieve this, Siemens is looking to develop bigger and more efficient wind turbines.

西门子风电部门的负责人汉尼拔(Michael Hannibal)称，海上业务的目标是到2020年将成本降低40%左右。届时这一成本水平仍将比现今的陆地风电成本要高35%左右，比煤炭和天然气发电成本高出1.7倍，但是预计未来还将继续下降。为了实现这一目标，西门子正在考虑研发更大、更高效的风力涡轮机。

Siemens's biggest wind generator has a capacity of 6 megawatts but the company needs to begin looking at 8 MWs, said Mr. Hannibal. Rivals Areva SA and Vestas A/S already offer 8 MW units.

汉尼拔称，西门子最大风力发电机的装机容量是6兆瓦，但是该公司需要开始考虑8兆瓦的机组。西门子的竞争对手阿海珐(Areva SA)和维斯塔斯(Vestas A/S)已经有8兆瓦的产品了。

Over the long-term, the goal is to bring down cost, so that offshore wind can compete with coal and gas, Mr. Hannibal said.

汉尼拔称，长期目标是降低成本，使得海上风力发电可以与煤、气发电竞争。