苹果汽车谁来造 Apple car is a slice of the pie

Apple’s car is either the worst-kept secret since its watch or a cracker of an inside joke. “Project Titan” has generated massive hype for a product that is five to 10 years off. The iCar may be electric and drive itself or not. Few know. But if it does arrive, it will be stylish, tech savvy, integrate with the iPhone and be in demand. Who will build them? Not Apple: it does not build its phones or computers, and building cars is much more complicated — just ask Tesla.

苹果(Apple)汽车要么是继苹果手表之后最没能保守好的秘密，要么是个只有内行人才听得懂的高明笑话。Project Titan使一款5到10年后才有望问世的产品受到大肆炒作。iCar可能是无人驾驶的电动汽车，也可能不是。没几个人知道。但如果这款产品真正推出，它应该是一款时尚、高科技、能和iPhone整合的抢手产品。谁将是这款产品的制造者？不是苹果：苹果的手机、电脑都不是苹果制造的，而制造汽车要复杂得多——问问特斯拉(Tesla)就知道了。

An existing carmaker might build it. Plenty of carmakers taught Chinese joint venture partners how to make cars as the price of admission to the growing Chinese market, even at the risk of increasing low-cost competition. The iCar market would be large and lucrative. A big global carmaker might be tempted to help with the build, even if Apple monopolised the branding, customer relationship and profitability. The benefits of scale and the brand halo might encourage them to overlook the risk of cannibalised sales.

制造者可能会由一家现有的汽车制造商担当。作为获准进入不断增长的中国市场的代价，许多汽车制造商教中国合资伙伴如何制造汽车，甚至不惜冒着加剧低成本竞争的风险。iCar将拥有巨大而利润丰厚的市场。即使苹果在品牌、客户关系和盈利能力方面独占好处，或许依然会有一家大型全球汽车制造商禁不住诱惑，帮助苹果制造汽车。规模效应和品牌光环带来的好处可能会鼓励它们忽视类似产品上市的风险。

More likely that a Chinese carmaker would step in. The manufacturer would be cost efficient for Apple and gain needed scale for itself. And premium-priced Apple cars are unlikely to cannibalise sales of low-priced models for the Chinese market.

更有可能的是，会有一家中国汽车制造商参与进来。与这家制造商合作对苹果来说将具有成本效益，制造商自身则能获得所需的规模。定价高端的苹果汽车不大可能影响中国市场上低端车型的销售。

Another likely option is Magna Steyr, the world’s largest white-label carmaker. It builds cars in European and Chinese plants to meet overflow demand or specialised, low-volume models for BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Chrysler and Aston Martin. Building cars is a side business for parent company Magna International, but the group has $18bn in enterprise value, supplies all the big carmakers and has been serious about growth since its founder left in late 2012 (shares are up 166 per cent since). Like the phones, most of the iCar’s profit will be Apple’s, but there is a slice of pie there for the partner.

另一个可能的选项是世界最大的代工汽车制造商麦格纳斯太尔(Magna Steyr)。该公司在欧洲和中国的工厂为宝马(BMW)、梅赛德斯-奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)、克莱斯勒(Chrysler)和阿斯顿马丁(Aston Martin)制造汽车，以满足超过产能的需求，或者制造特别版的小批量车型。对于其母公司麦格纳国际(Magna International)而言，汽车制造是一项副业，但麦格纳斯太尔的企业价值达到180亿美元，是所有大型汽车制造商的供应商。该集团在其创始人2012年末离开后十分重视增长（那之后股价上涨了166%）。就像iPhone一样，iCar的大多数利润将归苹果，但合作伙伴总能从中分得一杯羹。