未来五年铁矿石价格将下跌

Iron ore prices will fall to $90 a tonne over the next five years as demand for the steel-making ingredient wanes and a wave of new supply hits the market, Australia’s official commodities forecasting agency has predicted.

澳大利亚官方大宗商品预测机构预计，随着市场对铁矿石需求减少、供应增加，未来五年铁矿石价格将降至每吨90美元。

“The decline in prices is expected in response to moderating demand, particularly in China, and substantial supply increases from mining projects that are already under construction,” the Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics said in its quarterly report published yesterday.

澳大利亚资源与能源经济经济局（Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics，简称BREE）在昨日发布的季度报告中指出：“由于需求、尤其是中国的需求不断下滑，再加上已在建设中的采矿项目导致供应大幅增加，预计（铁矿石）价格将会下跌。”

The price of iron ore is critical to the global economy because it feeds through into the price of steel and goods such as cars and washing machines. It is also key to the profitability of large mining groups as well as steelmakers, including ArcelorMittal and Baosteel of China.

铁矿石价格对全球经济来说非常关键，因为它会传导到钢材价格以及汽车和洗衣机这类商品的价格上。此外，它还对大型矿业集团和安赛乐米塔尔(ArcelorMittal)、宝钢集团(Baosteel)等钢企的盈利能力有着重要影响。

Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Fortescue Metals Group, respectively the world’s second-, third- and fourth-biggest iron ore miners, are all aggressively expanding production. By 2015 they expect to add 235 tonnes of mine capacity – equal to about half of Australia’s entire iron ore production last year.

排名世界第二、三、四位的铁矿石矿商——力拓矿业集团(Rio Tinto)、必和必拓(BHP Billiton)和Fortescue Metals Group——都在大力增产。预计到2015年时，它们的开采产能将增长2.35亿吨，约为去年澳大利亚铁矿石总产量的一半。

But analysts are increasingly worried that the seaborne iron ore market will soon be in oversupply as output increases from Australia – the world’s biggest exporter of iron ore – and demand from China slows.

但分析师越来越担忧的是，随着澳大利亚（全球最大铁矿石出口国）的产量逐渐增加以及中国需求逐渐放缓，海运铁矿石市场不久就会供应过剩。

The price of the steel-making ingredient hit a two-and-a-half month low of $132.90 a tonne last week as Chinese steelmakers, the largest source of demand globally, backed away from the market amid signs of weakness in end demand.

铁矿石价格上周跌至每吨132.90美元的两个半月低点，原因是中国钢企（全球最大的铁矿石需求方）因终端需求疲软而逐渐撤出市场。

Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2015 forecast to $80 a tonne, as Chinese demand for imported iron ore slows due to the growing role of scrap in steel production and continued investment in domestic iron ore mines.

由于废料在钢铁生产中的作用不断提升、再加上中国对国内铁矿持续投资，中国对进口铁矿石的需求有所减弱。有鉴于此，高盛(Goldman Sachs)在本周早些时候将其对2015年铁矿石价格的预测值下调到每吨80美元。

“The iron ore industry has responded to a year of high iron ore prices by investing in new production but we argue that future demand will not be enough to absorb it,” Goldman said.

高盛表示：“一年来的价格高企，促使铁矿石行业加大投资以实现增产。但我们认为，未来的需求不足以消化掉增加后的产量。”

In its report, BREE forecast average spot and contract prices of $119 a tonne in 2013 and $90 by 2018. It said Australian iron ore exports would increase 12 per cent this year to 554m tonnes due to higher output at Rio and BHP mines and the “ramp-up” of production at Fortescue’s expansion projects in Western Australia. Overall, BREE predicts Australian iron ore exports will increase at an average annual rate of 8 per cent a year between 2014 and 2018, when output will hit 831m tonnes.

BREE的报告预计，2013年铁矿石的平均现货及合约价格为每吨119美元，2018年将降至每吨90美元。报告还称，由于力拓和必和必拓产量提高、Fortescue在西澳大利亚州的扩张项目也使产量“迅猛增长”，今年澳大利亚的铁矿石出口量将增长12%，达到5.54亿吨。BREE预计，总体来说，2014年到2018年，澳大利亚铁矿石出口量的年均增幅将为8%。到2018年时，澳大利亚的铁矿石产量将达8.31亿吨。

Most of the big miners expect the iron ore price to decline in coming quarters as new supply hits the market, projecting prices to average about $120 a tonne this year. But they do not believe there will be a dramatic collapse in prices, arguing that not all the forecast supply will materialise and that China’s urbanisation will continue to drive steel demand.

随着新的供应进入市场，大部分大型矿商都预期，未来几个季度铁矿石价格将会下滑，预计今年的均价将为每吨120美元左右。但它们不认为铁矿石价格会出现戏剧性的暴跌，理由是并非所有的预期供应都能实现、而且中国的城镇化将持续提振钢材需求。